MOSCOW, 10 Feb – PRIME. factors affecting the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate create good conditions for its further growth after refresh local highs, say industry experts.
Geopolitics, oil and careful financial authorities of the Russian Federation support Russian currency, analysts say.
the dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 18.43 MSK decreased by 0.37 ruble – to 58,52 of the ruble, the Euro by 0.63 rubles – up to 62.2 rubles, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
the dollar and the Euro already fell earlier on Friday, before of 58.44 62,09 of the ruble and the ruble, respectively – below 58,56 62,32 of the ruble and ruble (previous half year lows set in February and January, respectively).
Geopolitics helps
the Geopolitical risk of investing in the ruble is gradually reduced, increasing the attractiveness of assets in the Russian currency, said Vladimir rozhankovsky of the MC “Horizon”.
“Out of the ruble with the arrival of trump to power in the United States gradually receding geopolitical risk. New sanctions are not expected, and the old will be gradually removed – in the financial sector, energy. This process will last until the face to face meeting of Putin and trump and discuss their backlog of pressing issues. So by the end of March, I expect the dollar is around 54 rubles. To cross these expectations can only fail in high-level talks between Russia and the US or the intervention of the Central Bank to replenish reserves,” he said.
Factor in the possible warming of relations with the West, Russia will play a role, says Andrey Manko of RIA Rating.
the Ruble on the background of a high key rate and good appetite of non-residents to the risk (largely due to geopolitics) will remain strong, said Valery Vaisberg of the IR Region.
Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance is invisible
Active verbal interventions to buy currency in reserve, which bombarded the Treasury market, while in what has not resulted, say market players.
“the Majority of those present at the exchange not see the purchases of foreign currency regulator. Moreover, the Central Bank does not print information about the purchases of foreign currency on the website, although until 31 January this information was available. The situation is comical,” sums up rojankovski of the MC “Horizon”.
Strengthening the ruble is not confounded by the increased volatility of oil prices nor the purchase by the Central Bank currency reserves of the Ministry of Finance 6.3 billion daily, says Roman Tkachuk from the company “Alpari”.
As demonstrated by last week, the purchase of Treasury currency a significant impact on the dynamics of the ruble have also added Irina Rogov, Forex Club.
Oil helps
the Main factor to support the ruble remains confident dynamics of the oil market, said rozhankovsky of the MC “Horizon”.
“no Wonder Rex Tillerson, former head of Exxon Mobil became the U.S. Secretary of state. He will not give offense to his associates in the oil business, oil prices are unlikely to fall. Not for nothing because for the third month in a row rising of the stock Exxon Mobil” – said the expert.
in addition, the brilliant performance of the agreement to reduce oil production, increase of the forecast on the dynamics of global demand and the steady global decline of hydrocarbon reserves create good conditions for new attempts of the game to increase the price of “black gold,” says Weisberg of the IR Region.
the Volume of bets on rising oil price continues to rise, which sooner or later must push quotes to the level of 60 dollars per barrel and above, he added.
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