Research Center Dealing FX Euroclub
24/03/2015 20:06
from Markit PMI indices point to the acceleration of economic growth in Europe and the United States
Business Activity in the euro zone in March grew to the extent that the European Central Bank began to increase the money supply to support economic growth and a slowdown in China’s industry has raised expectations for an increase of monetary stimulus.
The growth in US industry has also become higher despite a higher dollar and the threat of rising interest rates the Fed later this year.
The general index of purchasing managers by Markit in the euro zone rose to nearly four-year high of 54.1 in at 53.3 in February.
The survey points to economic growth in the euro area in the first quarter by 0.3%, said Markit. It is close to the previous month, and a little less than the median forecast of economists 0.4%. ECB in March launched the “quantitative easing” (which is reflected in the purchase of bonds.
Peter Dixon of Commerzbank believes that the factor of “quantitative easing” at this stage is not too important. The ECB buys bonds only a few weeks, and to “quantitative easing” had an impact, take a long time. Economic growth has already occurred.
The index of prices for Markit survey rose to an eight-month high at 49.0, but the index remained below the 50 level, it will continue for three years. Probably in the near future inflation will not appear.
European stock markets and the euro rose on data suggesting acceleration of economic growth in the euro zone, but a slowdown in China has left oil prices and assets related to natural resources under pressure.
Index purchasing managers from HSBC / Markit China fell in March, according to preliminary data, up to 11-month Minium 49.2, below the 50 level that separates growth from decline. The decline of the index confirms the risk reduction for economic growth in China in 2015 ., it’s starting to become a real risk. In Barclays believe that the possibility of accelerating the cycle of monetary policy easing and partial easing of fiscal policy.
Some economists believe that China’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 will be lower than the government’s goal for the year as a whole, 7.0% – a level that is often seen as necessary for the preservation of employment at the same level. Chinese leaders have stated that a more relaxed look to the economic slowdown, while the labor market is stable. However, employment in the survey show decreases the 17th consecutive month and reached the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
In the US, the index of purchasing managers in the industry from Markit, according to preliminary data, rose to five-month high of 55.3 – the highest level since October, when the final data for the index stands at 55.9.
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