In the baseline scenario by the beginning of 2016 the US currency will cost about 55 rubles.
Photo: Properm.ru
The ruble strengthened by August-September 2015, almost regardless of the price of oil. This forecast gives the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. In the case of the gradual lifting of sanctions on the optimistic version, by 2018 the dollar will fall to 40 rubles. On the negative version – up to 50 rubles.
The general hypotheses forecast, according to the newspaper “Kommersant”, a gradual rise in oil prices: in the baseline forecast it will grow by an average of $ 60 per barrel in 2015 to $ 80 in 2018; in the optimistic – the end of 2018 the oil price will return to above $ 100 a barrel. If this happens, the year the dollar will give about 40 rubles.
However, the agency Alexei Ulyukayev leaning towards a more moderate growth in oil prices at the level of 4-5%. This will at the end of 2018 rate below 50 rubles to the dollar.
Until September 2015, according to forecasts departments, local weakening of the ruble is expected to peak decline in May 2015 – at the level of 58.2 rubles per dollar. In the baseline scenario (sanctions remain, and oil will rise slowly) for the New Year the dollar will give about 55 rubles, and then it will start to steadily grow stronger.
The optimistic scenario (the lifting of sanctions, the growing oil) gives the stability of the at the same level – 55 rubles to the dollar in the autumn – winter 2015 with subsequent consolidation.
After the meeting with the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin March 25 Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev told reporters that the situation in the Russian economy remains difficult, but there are signs of stabilization: the peak of inflation practically passed, the ruble strengthened, says “RIA Novosti».
– The economic situation remains difficult, remains tense, but there have been significant signs of stabilization. This also applies to inflation, which has ceased to grow year by year – for four weeks in a row she froze on one value. That is, the peak of inflation, we almost passed. We have passed the peak of change and exchange ratios – there is a strengthening of the ruble, the ruble is looking for a new balance.
Let’s remind, last week the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov at the Congress of the RSPP also said that the peak negativity observed in the Russian economy in late 2014 and early years of this, has already passed. Siluanov believes that at the end of 2016 inflation may slow down to 6-7%.
On the eve of the opening of trading on the Moscow stock exchange dollar tried to fight back, but by 11:00 MSK began to fall: the US currency was trading at around 57.25 rubles.
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