the Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation
the Russian economy in the next three years will grow more slowly than previously thought, according to a new variant of the forecast of Ministry of economic development. The baseline forecast, the Ministry has reduced for the second time this month
In the base forecast of development of Russian economy for the next three years, which has developed Ministry of economic development, the Agency downgraded the growth of GDP compared to the previous version, writes the newspaper “Vedomosti”, which reviewed the document. And for the last month, these figures are reduced for the second time. The forecast will be considered at the government meeting on October 13, the newspaper writes, the budget must be included in the baseline forecast.
As follows from the document, in the base case, which is based on the average price of oil at $ 40 a barrel, economic growth in 2017 will remain at nearly zero and will be 0.2%. In prepared Sep version baseline forecast next year’s planned GDP growth of 0.6%. The GDP growth forecast for the two subsequent years also reduced: in 2018 from 1.7% to 0.9%, and in 2019, down from 2.1% to 1.2%.
Previously, the newspaper wrote that in the September version of the forecast of development of Russian economy for the next three years the Ministry of economic development worsened the most compared to the same forecast developed in April.
the publication quotes the words of the representative of the Ministry, which said that the Outlook change is due to budget consolidation.
according to TASS, the forecast, as in the previous month, prepared in three options: basic, basic +” (optimistic), which is based on oil price of $ 48 per barrel in 2017, $ 52 per barrel in 2018 and to $ 55 per barrel in 2019 and a “target” with the same oil prices as in the “basic+”, but with the accelerated pace of GDP growth. Inflation in the baseline forecast for 2016 is 5.8%, in the next three years stabiliziruemost at 4%. In September the Ministry believed that even in 2019, the inflation will not fall to this target level and will reach 4.1%.
According to “Vedomosti”, the inflation forecast for all three years were adjusted after a meeting of the budget Committee from the Ministry was required to match the Central Bank target of 4% in 2017.
the dollar / ruble exchange Rate in the baseline scenario in 2017 will amount to 67.5 rubles, in 2018 – 68,7 rubles 2019 – 71,1 RUB.
These figures correspond to the orientations of the Ministry of Finance: September 30 the head of Department Anton Siluanov reported that the draft budget for 2017-2019 has an average annual dollar RUB 67,5, 68.7 per RUB RUB and 71.1%, respectively. Prior to this, both agencies gave different figures. In particular, the September baseline forecast of economic development was based on the average annual exchange rate of the dollar and 65 rubles for 2017 and 2018 and 64 RUB to 2019.
As explained RBC experts, a reduction in the projected rate of the ruble is connected with the desire of the Ministry of Finance show that the budget can be created without raising taxes with a reasonable deficit. In early September the Ministry of Finance came to the government with various proposals to increase the tax burden, but in the end, the President announced that the Agency has no proposals to increase taxes for the next three years. So, we need to use exchange rate adjustments to income: while a weaker ruble is the currency oil and gas revenues increase in ruble terms. As a result, the topic of raising taxes can be closed, said the head of “Fiscal policy” the Economic expert group Alexander Suslin.
According to the chief economist of “Renaissance Capital” in Russia Oleg Kuzmin, new courses, laid down by the Finance Ministry, closer to reality. According to Bank calculations, the dollar could trade for 64-65 RUB, but with oil at $ 50 per barrel. And at $ 40, the course must be 69,5 RUB.
“Kommersant” notes that “to fail the implementation of this variant of the forecast can only be a new economic disaster, and for the fulfillment of such plans for more government action, in fact, not necessary.”
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