MOSCOW, October 28. /Offset. Julia Temereva TASS/. Today a source in the financial-economic bloc of the Russian government said that “Rosneftegaz” through which the state owns 69.5% of Rosneft, could be assigned to sell in 2017 for another 10% of the shares. Despite the fact that now the government prepares for the privatization of 19.5% of Rosneft shares, in the case of the sale of both packages, Russia will lose control of major domestic oil companies.
“of Course, possible (selling 10% of shares of “Rosneft”. – Approx. TASS). If we have now it all goes successfully (sell 19.5% of Rosneft shares. – Approx. TASS), then 10% of “Rosneft”, most likely, we even have to sell,” – said the Agency interlocutor.
In turn, the Ministry TASS stressed that the government is focused on preparing for the privatization of 19.5% of Rosneft shares, but after the transaction, if necessary, can return to the question of the sale of other shares of the company.
the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov said that selling 10% of shares of “Rosneft” the government was not discussed.
If you really want, you can
Experts polled by TASS, cautious talking about the possibility of the sale of another 10% of shares of “Rosneft”, but do not exclude that the government can take such a step, including for covering the budget deficit.
“According to the draft budget for the next three years, he foresees that next year we run out of Reserve Fund. As will be absorbed by the budget deficit, any raising of funds in the budget, including through privatization, will be required. The question is whether they will buy this package at 10% next year. As we can see, “Rosneft” can buy anything, why can’t she buy herself?”, – TASS said the analyst of “Finam” Alexey Kalachev, adding that in the current situation, such a deal looks doubtful.
According to him, to find buyers 10% of shares of “Rosneft” will be difficult, as “any investor wants access to the management company, and 10% do not give even the seats on the Board of Directors.”
the Analyst of “Opening the Capital” Artem Konchin does not agree with this point of view, because it believes that a possible sale of 10% shares of “Rosneft” is associated with the configuration of a qualifying transaction for the sale of a 19.5% stake. “It is possible that the three strategic investor bought almost 10% of the shares, such as the standard package,” he said.
In turn, the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Andrey Polischuk believes a sale of 10% of “Rosneft” in 2017 is unlikely, but due to the short time frames.
“I Think that it is unlikely that in such a short time the state will be ready to sell another 10% and to give up full control of the company. It is likely that even if it is sold this package and the state’s share falls below 50%, then the new shareholders may be limited in terms of joint voting with the other shareholders, not to exceed when making decisions share of the state,” he said, adding that the loss of government control in the company may lead to conflicts between shareholders.
the Real deal
the Russian government aims to sell 19.5% of Rosneft shares until the end of the year to obtain funds to cover the Federal budget deficit. First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov says that under the plan the shares of “Rosneft” will be sold to investors. However, experts doubt that they will be able to carry out such a deal due to the large number of necessary approvals and technical issues.
as a reserve considered the option of redemption by the company of its own shares from Rosneftegaz, the cost of which is estimated at $ 11 billion buyback, However, will be temporary and only in case of impossibility to receive money in the budget until the end of 2016.
According to the source, in the case of Rosneft’s purchase of its own shares, the company will be obliged to sell the package to investors during the first quarter of 2017. The government already knows of the potential investors, ready to redeem a share of 19.5%.
“If the government claims to know who these investors are, you probably still have only the technical processing of the transaction. They may not have time to do that perhaps for reasons beyond their control, as the buyers, too, may be regulatory and other approvals. If it’s some state-owned companies in China or India, they will also have on the channels to reconcile. If you fail to spend this year, not because there is no one to sell, but simply due to technical issues. Therefore, it is strongly speaks about the first quarter,” – says the analyst of “Opening Capital”.
Polischuk from Raiffeisenbank suggested that the statement of obligations “Rosneft” to sell the purchased package in the first quarter of 2017 is already bound to some preliminary talks with potential investors. “This period may not necessarily be the first quarter, but he will be bound to a preliminary agreement. If investors will not be found until the end of the first quarter of 2017, to oblige Rosneft to sell shares is simply impossible, because no one sell. Everything will be tied in advance,” – said Polishchuk.
the Experts also agree that the package of 19.5% will be divided between the two strategic investors from India and China. Previously, India’s ONGC and China’s CNPC officially announced his interest in the privatization of “Rosneft”.
Projects of “Rosneft” on the shelf
the Possible sale of another 10% of “Rosneft” may affect the offshore projects of the company, as under the current law On subsoil users subsoil of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation may be companies in which the share of Russia “in the authorized capitals more than 50% and (or) concerning which the Russian Federation has the right to directly or indirectly dispose of more than 50% of the total number of votes.”
currently, the development of the Russian shelf are only “Rosneft” and “Gazprom”. The head of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin in 2013 stated that the decrease in the state share in the share capital of “Rosneft” will be most effective after the reduction of interest in offshore projects in Russia and after he moves from offshore projects to international.
This point of view he adhered in 2014, when he noted that “the decline (fraction of state) below 51% would be counterproductive and does not protect the interests of minority shareholders because controlling stake, for example, provides opportunities offshore and conducting IPO in 2006, the state took upon itself the obligation to preservation of the environment for the shareholders, and the presence offshore of the package were then, and the conditions for the sale of the shares and to individuals and foreign shareholders”.
however, Sechin expressed confidence that sell stocks best the company itself. “If the company will be tasked to become the operator of the sale, we will do that with maximum efficiency and better than anyone else. Because we deeply understand the features of the company, know its undervalued potential, strategy, understand how to build up the capitalization, but of course, count on the support of the government”, – said the head of the company.
Analysts believe that in the case of a sale, another 10% of shares of “Rosneft” there are mechanisms to enable it to continue working offshore.
“License, which “Rosneft” claimed, probably, have already received. And the law podkorrektirovatj if necessary”, – said the Passing of the “Opening Capital”.
Total Russia Rosneft owns 55 licenses for areas of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation, in particular in the Okhotsk sea, the Kara and Chukchi seas and the Laptev sea. Meanwhile, the Russian government decided to temporarily impose a moratorium on the issuance of licenses for deposits of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation taking into account the considerable amount of work still to be completed state-owned companies in the context of macroeconomic instability.
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