Bank of Russia gave disappointing forecasts for the domestic economy: annual decline of Russia’s GDP is only the first half of 2015 will be 3.2%. In the future, the Central Bank expects a significant deterioration of the macroeconomic parameters due to unfavorable foreign conjecture and suffocating Western sanctions.
This is only a limited list of economic “joy” predicted Central Bank: the high price of imported investment goods , a sharp decline in financial performance of corporations, limited access to capital, and as a consequence of the decline in investment in fixed assets, the fall in real wages, the slowdown in retail lending, the decline in consumer activity, the list goes on.
According to the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev, GDP will fall by 4.5 per cent, if during 2015 the oil price will remain at $ 45 per barrel.
The pace of economic growth in 2014 (0.6%) were the lowest since 2009 year. In 2012, Russia’s GDP grew by 3.4% in 2011 – 4.3%, in 2010 – 4.5%. In the crisis year of 2009 the Russian economy fell by 7,8%.
And the forecasts of the Central Bank with respect to the fall in GDP in the current year is still quite optimistic – European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicts the fall of the Russian economy by 5%, Fitch 4% . At the same time, the agency expects a modest inflation 8,5%.
Such predictions particularly disappointing, if you look at the US indices. Their GDP grew last year by more than 2%, and in 2015 is expected to accelerate growth to an incredible 2.9% for the US. Given that their economies (16724000000000) in more than 8 times larger than Russia (2015000000000), this year it will grow by a quarter of Russia’s GDP. While maintaining the current dynamics in a couple of years, the US will be a year to germinate in Russia, and in ten years the Russian economy in two years!
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