We all, from ordinary citizens to corporations and governments will have to learn to live in the new conditions. And to adapt to these harsh realities designed anti-crisis program of the government. This was stated by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Today’s oil price (about $ 50 per barrel), according to Shuvalov, painful for the federal budget, but remain within the profitability of Russian oil companies. For January 2015 the price of a barrel of “black gold” has fallen from 56 to 48 dollars.
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Speaking Davos, Shuvalov reiterated price crisis plan – 1.375 trillion rubles. Support is planned to agriculture, industry, banks and other sectors of the economy. Russian President Vladimir Putin on the whole anti-crisis plan already approved. “Now I feel real concentration not only within the government, and at the level of regional governments. Everybody wants to achieve real success. And when contracting revenues from the sale of oil and gas, we still want to win this race and we want to show that our Russian economy in which -That the future is not so will depend on these revenues, “- said the first deputy prime minister in the interview program” Vesti on Saturday with Sergei Brilev “.
At the same time, according to Igor Shuvalov, in the current economic situation of the Russian banks may have to go through the process of rehabilitation (ie financial “recovery”). “We must understand that we are for this purpose to calm people down – extend your coverage to 1.4 million rubles. That is, the contributions of the population will still be protected. But this will lead to the fact that banks have become bigger, stronger and more competitive,” – said First Deputy Prime Minister. In addition, banks will capitalize rosciyskie using gosudarctva trillion rubles.
According to Igor Shuvalov, on the whole Russian banking system can be called stable now, however, it will experience a period of consolidation.
“We’ve been talking about it, a lot of banks in Russia. Maybe it is good, maybe not. But we understand that the provision of new capital to support lending, we need to understand there is a change in the structure of the banking sector. This deals with the Bank Russia, not the government. We are watching this closely, we support them in this work. We believe that they are acting correctly, “- said First Deputy Prime Minister.
The European business, and partly American realizes that sanctions hurt him, and that they are ineffective
The effects of the crisis will be mitigated, not only for banks, but for the most vulnerable: the government is discussing issues of social support with the regional authorities, Shuvalov said. The issue with the provision of imported drugs, rising after the depreciation of the ruble. According to Shuvalov, the government as a priority considering options to support the population: pensioners, large families and single-parent families.
The forum First Deputy Prime Minister stressed that the anti-crisis plan should not be confused structural reforms. High oil prices have motivated an increase in government spending, rather than productivity growth and reforms. Now they need to carry out as soon as possible within three years. “My fear, I will say frankly that this whole Modernization agenda can quickly disappear with the return of large export earnings” – does not hide Shuvalov.
However, before the rise in oil prices still seems far away. BP CEO Bob Dudley predicts that at the current level, they will remain for another 2-3 years. Similar opinion is shared ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin: 100 or more dollars that have recently given a barrel – the price of “abnormal”, and Russia must adapt to the cost of “black gold” at the level of 60-80 dollars. Earlier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the amendments to the budget for 2015 are prepared on the basis of an average oil price of $ 60, whereas in the current version of the pledged $ 96.
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About a barrel in Davos, talked a lot. But, as it turned out, not only it determines our bright future. The head of Google Eric Schmidt predicted the end of the Internet – in its present form it will disappear, dissolve into the world of “digital” things around us. “There will be so many IP-addresses, so many devices, sensors that you put on, the things that you interact with that you stop it, even feel,” – said one of the richest people in the world whose assets are connected with breakthrough projects the Internet.
A UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called for a low-carbon economy, recalling that the cause of global warming is human activity. “We are the first generation that can end poverty, and the last generation that can prevent climate change,” – he said, and warned that it may result in costly consequences in the future.
Ban Ki-moon hopes that the international community will be able to conclude in December full agreement on climate change to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
While the move to a low carbon economy is too slow, and does not contribute to this decline in oil prices. But last year was a record for the younger market “green” bonds, which are issued under the investment projects in the field of renewable energy.
The call to Davos
We have succeeded in the midst of discussions in Davos to call the party of economic Forum president of “Business Russia” Alexey Repik.
“At WEF I travel for a few years – he said columnist” WP “- and every time I hear from many people here that this format has exhausted itself, that the forum will be “to diminish” – he too was elected character, a lot of organizational difficulties and so on. However, these people every year I see here again and again. Because it should be, where there all, regardless of region or industry, and where You can discuss not only the economy, but also the impact on her policy “.
In the Russian forum’s agenda, of course, to talk about sanctions. European business, says our source, and partly American realizes that sanctions hurt him, and that they are ineffective as a means of political pressure. Damage not only to direct. Sanctions make globalization a very “expensive”: this is a bad example, undermines confidence. Because once these risks are very real business requires the implementation of an array of additional insurance. At the forum, this idea sounded.
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“In addition, the performances of the European colleagues it is clear that they closely follow the development of economic relations between Russia and China and even expect that it may in some degree to support the ruble – said Repik. – Chinese representatives, in turn, strongly stated their intention to move from a predominantly energy agenda of our business relations for investment cooperation “.
Russian speakers in Davos said that it is time to restore the modernization agenda. Although, of course, all these years, the non-oil business continued stubbornly swim against the tide and try to do what now seems obvious saving driver for the Russian economy.
“Now the main question – whether the authorities, using high level of trust population, not just implement a turnaround plan, but also to hold tight and maybe quite unpopular structural reforms, – concludes the source of “Rossiyskaya Gazeta”. – All agree that the most obvious mechanism by which you can raise the Russian economy – is increase in labor productivity. We must take advantage of good market conditions, which took the ruble devaluation to increase our global competitiveness. Therefore, it is important not to close their markets. Markets are like parachutes, work best when open “.
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