IMF predicts decline of the Russian economy amid falling oil prices and geopolitical tensions – Rosbalt.RU

IMF predicts decline of the Russian economy amid falling oil prices and geopolitical tensions – Rosbalt.RU

MOSCOW, January 20. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the fall of the Russian economy in 2015 at 3%, previously he expected GDP growth of the Russian Federation this year to 0,5%.

According to the updated review of the world economy “Prospects for the world economy “(World Economic Outlook), in 2016 is expected to decline by 1% against the October forecast of growth of 1,5%.

” The forecast reflects the economic impact of the sharp decline in oil prices and increased geopolitical tensions, “- IMF says.

In this case, the fund has fallen somewhat and the forecast for global GDP growth in 2015 and 2016 – by 0.3 percentage points every year, up to 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively. By the end of 2014, global economic growth, according to the fund amounted to 3.3%, which corresponds to the October assessment.

The Fund notes that the sharp slowdown in Russia and the depreciation of the ruble significantly weakened the prospects of other CIS countries. The economy of the CIS countries in 2015 will drop by IMF forecasts 1.4% (estimate lowered by 2.9 percentage points compared to April), in 2016 – will grow by 0.8% (decreased by 1.7 pp.).

Let us recall, the World Bank (WB) in mid-January, more than three times downgraded the outlook on the dynamics of Russia’s GDP for 2015: expected to decline by 2.9% instead of 0.7% . European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also downgraded the forecast decline in GDP of Russia and this year – up 4.8% from the September forecast of 0,2%.

Note also previously a former IMF chief economist Kenneth Harvard professor Rogoff did not rule out a downgrade of Russia according to the agency S & amp; P to investment grade “BBB-” to speculative “BB +”.

“The fall of the ruble and the weakening of the banking system are dangerous even if initially low public debt. This is shown by the examples Spain and Iceland, the problems in the financial system that began with a rather modest government debt. Now their debts are huge. See on the creditworthiness of the country should be on a combination of factors. In a situation of protracted recession downgrade would not surprise me, “- said Rogoff.