The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for economic growth in the world to 3.5% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016. These figures are incorporated in an updated report on the status and immediate prospects of the world economy, the presentation of which is held on January 20 in Beijing. Downward revision of forecasts for all the world’s leading economies, except the United States. Among the reasons for changes in the forecast – lower-than-expected growth in China, Russia, the countries of the euro area and Japan, writes “Kommersant».
Christine Lagarde
«too low, too fragile and too one-sided “- describes IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde global growth prospects last week, when the Fund has received the latest data for forecasting
According to the IMF, that the Russian economy will suffer the greatest losses among producing countries. According to the report, in 2015 the fall of the Russian economy could reach 3%. As reasons for the decline is called a sharp decline in oil prices and geopolitical tensions. However, in 2016, Russia’s economy is projected to fund stabilized, the decline was only 1%.
«Vedomosti” noted that the IMF forecasts seem to be more optimistic than the expectations of the Russian authorities. Thus, according to forecasts of the Bank of Russia, at an oil price of $ 60 per barrel drop in Russian GDP 4.5-4.7% in 2015 and 0.9-1.1% – in 2016. According to Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, while maintaining oil prices at around $ 45 per barrel, Russia’s GDP will decline in 2015 to 5.4%. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Russia’s GDP falling by 4.8% against the previous forecast of a decline of 0.2%. Analysts rating agency Moody’s believe that Russia’s GDP in 2015 will decrease by 5,5%.
According to the forecasts of the Navy, higher than expected growth in 2015 will be only in the US, where the decline in oil prices, while maintaining low rates support an increase in employment. American authors updated document promise now in 2015 and 2016 increased by 3.6 and 3.3%, respectively.
In Europe, by contrast, will increase the risk of deflation and low growth investments as falling inflation expectations and reduce exports. New indicators for the euro area as a whole – 1.2 and 1.4% growth for Germany – 1.3 and 1.5%, France – 0.9 and 1.3% for Italy – 0.4 and 0 8% The UK expected growth rate slightly higher – 2.7 and 2.4%, the TASS.
the engine of world growth, along with the United States remain Russia’s partners in the BRICS group. In China, the drafters of the report is expected in 2015 and 2016 growth by 6.8 and 6.3% in India – 6.3 and 6.5% in South Africa – by 2.1 and 2.5% in Brazil – 0.3 and 1.5%, but at the same time waiting for the PRC as compared to the October decreased by 0.3% over the current and 0.5% – for the next few years.
The decline of global indices authors of the document linked First of all, with the “revaluation prospects in China, Russia, Japan and the euro area, as well as the weakening of activity in major oil exporters».
For example, in Saudi Arabia, the IMF forecasts now in the next two years, an increase of 2 , 8, and 2.7% is 1.6 and 1.7% less than expected in October.
IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said that the global economy is contradictory. “On the one hand, large countries are benefiting from lower oil prices. On the other hand, in many parts of the world deterioration of long-term negative impact on demand, “- he said.
Despite the uncertainty about the length of this period of oversupply of oil on the market until the fund expect partial and gradual recovery oil prices – up to 56.73 dollars per barrel in 2015 and to 63.88 in 2016. Note that in 2014 the average price was 96.26 dollars per barrel.
Alexander Apokin
As told in an interview with “Kommersant” Alexander Apokin of CMASF in the case of prolonged low oil prices most likely to benefit China and India, where about 6% of household income is spent directly on gasoline.
According to the IMF, a sharp slowdown in development and depreciation of the ruble in Russia greatly worsened the prospects and for other economies in the Commonwealth of Independent States. The economy of the CIS countries in 2015 will drop by IMF forecasts 1.4%, and in 2016 – will grow by 0,8%.
With this assessment and agree to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, where believe that the Russian economic crisis, no doubt, will also affect the neighboring countries.
In the EBRD noted that the affected exporters of hydrocarbons (such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan) and importers – they benefit from lower prices for oil does not block the losses due to the close economic ties with Russia. The bank is believed that one of the main problems – reduction of remittances from Russia. Weakening of the ruble reduced the cost of remittances in dollar terms and as a consequence, in local currencies, which hit consumer demand and increase the pressure on the national currency.
According to experts, Russia’s partners in the EAEC begin to actively seek other opportunities to overcome the crisis. Thus, Kazakhstan has stepped up negotiations on an agreement on partnership and cooperation with the European Union and Belarus have offered Russia go per dollar and will try to establish the European context.
We remind the Russian government and the State Duma on January 19 officially started the discussion of anti-crisis measures. As expected, the “Plan of sustainable economic development and social stability,” Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has to submit to President Vladimir Putin before the end of the week.
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