Real incomes of Russians fell sharply after the devaluation of December – RBC

Real incomes of Russians fell sharply after the devaluation of December – RBC

Photo: Yekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

Real disposable incomes continue to fall for the second month in a row. The growth in October at 1.9% followed by the November decline of 3.9%. In December rate went into even greater negative – 7.3%. As a result, for the year the real incomes of Russians decreased by 1%.

Real incomes have fallen year on year for the first time since 2000, most of the time they showed a steady growth, with a maximum in 2003 by 15%. In 2011 alone, real income growth almost stopped – then they rose by only 0.5%. However, already in 2012, Rosstat recorded an increase of 4.6%. In 2013, revenues rose by another 4%.

In the current fall unusual combination of factors, says Director of reg ionalnym ratings and infrastructure projects of the agency “Rus-Rating” Anton Tabah. Firstly, the surge in inflation. Secondly, the effects of strong earnings jump in the public sector in 2013 (a consequence of the May presidential decrees), against which in 2014 the growth rate of the sector has slowed. At the same time, the pressure experienced and commercial sector: “Even a” well-fed “sphere, like banks, is under very strong pressure from – people reduce the premiums are not paid,” – says an economist.

However, revenues fall not everywhere, notes Tabah. According to his calculations, in the richest regions today simply stagnation or minimal growth to 0.2%. “In Moscow, most likely at the end of 2014 will be zero or a small minus” – he predicts.

Since real incomes fell in November, it is not surprising that in December against the backdrop of resurgence of inflation figure was worse , Director of Strategic Analysis Department FBK Igor Nikolaev. Record decline felt by many – “when a falling value, it is very sensitive to a large number of people, the growth of wages in many structures have been frozen,” he added.

From the sharp decline in income today suffer primarily state employees – because of the low indexation of salaries, followed by financial and oil sector, said the head of the analytical department of the Criminal Code “Russian Standard” Sergei sovereign. In January, the situation is somewhat smoothed out – many companies pay annual and quarterly bonuses. Later affect the rise in unemployment, a decrease in bonuses and the continuing rise in prices. Therefore, despite the fact that in the second half of the year will slow and inflation, and the decline in real income, at the end of 2015, they still fall by 2-3%, estimates Suverov.

In January, the results may be worse in December – manifest effect of the end of the year. And if the measures to support the economy would not work, then 2015 will be even more a failure, says Tabah. “The first half will be very bad, and the second is dependent on external factors. I would not be surprised to see at the end of half-year decline by 2-3%, “- the economist said.

After the first year of negative growth in real incomes during Putin’s presidency will be followed by another one with a larger scale collapse, said Nikolaev . He did not rule out that in 2015 revenues may fall by 5-10%. “Nothing special for this not to happen – just a continuation of the trend that is”, – says Nikolaev. Ministry of Economic Development predicts drop in real disposable income in 2015 to 2.8%, according to the December macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry.