Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting ( CMASF) conducted stress tests of banks and found how their performance affects the monetary policy of the Central Bank ( three scenarios, see fig.).
« Given the economic realities and forecasts, most likely that if the previous policy of the Central Bank key rate will continue to grow in the range of 17 to 37% ?? says a leading expert CMASF Mikhail Mamonov. ?? Get something in between freezing and growth, as is usually the case ».
If current rigid interest rate policy ( script « status quo” with growth rates of up to 37%) more than 280 banks in 2015 and 230 in 2016 will need additional capital in excess of $ 1.2 trillion and $ 1 trillion rubles. ?? then they will be able to close the holes on the growth of bad debts and not to disturb the capital adequacy ratio.
Some of the money can make the owners of banks, based on the average rate of replenishment of the share capital, received 27% a year, said Mamonov: « The rest take nowhere, except at the expense of the state».
Without state support problems will be prohibitive for more than 200 banks in 2015 and 160 in 2016, they will need more than 900 billion and 500 billion rubles. respectively, estimated by experts CMASF.
When you freeze the key rate will need more support large number of banks and an even larger scale: more than 1 trillion and 0.8 trillion rubles. for about 250 and 230, evaluates CMASF.
The announced measures of state mainly deal with the largest banks, said Mamonov, « Although about 25% of the required amount of funds, according to our calculations, it will take 150 medium and small banks outside the top 100. ” Systemically significant effect within the sector and the country they are, he admits, but believes that these banks also need support, « if they are affected by the common system problems, not because of their own policy ».
« Published CMASF data is very similar to the results of our study, although approaches have We have different “?? said deputy director of « Interfax-CEA” Alex Buzdalin. « Interfax-CEA” studied the dependence of the frequency of defaults of different groups of Russian banks on the rate of GDP growth ?? the main factor of credit risk in the sector. Analysis of the data for the last 15 years revealed a linear dependence: a reduction in GDP growth by 1 n. N. An average growth implies the probability of bank failures by 0.25. N. But the accumulated systemic problems in the banking sector may abruptly increase the frequency of bankruptcies in the 8- 10 n. n., warns expert.
« In 2015, GDP is expected to fall by 3-5% due to the growth of credit risk 150 200 banks could lose their licenses ?? Buzdalin says. ?? This is not only a consequence of the crisis, but also formed in the early 2000s. sustainable trend in the decline in growth of assets of small banks ( outside the top 100). And now we come to the situation of reducing assets, which can start a domino effect: in small banks fell efficiency long ?? their existence was bleak, but there is also a crisis ».
In fact, according to calculations « Interfax -TSEA “, it means a gradual return of the banking system in the 90′s. When the frequency of defaults was 15-16% per year. Assessment Buzdalin, the vast majority of small banks will be unprofitable, so to speak of recapitalization at the expense of profits is not necessary, and the owners will not invest in a hopeless business.
« This last several years, and as a result the number of banks will fall to about 350-400 “?? Buzdalin says, adding that the state should support small but important for the regions banks.
Appreciation liabilities fall in the value of securities and the growth of bad loans, according to the head of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis Alpha -Bank Natalia Orlova, can bring in this year’s banking sector net loss of about 2 trillion rubles., and it is minus 25% of the capital. « 1 trillion rubles. potential losses of large banks State considers Close [through recapitalization through BFL], there is still a trillion to the rest of the system ?? she reasons. ?? In a situation of uncertainty and over-regulation of the banking sector owners of medium-sized banks may choose not to capitalize them, and get out of the banking business ».
The problems may be at some big banks, says Buzdalin. However, the government will support the banks, where a lot of private deposits, expects Fitch analyst Alexander Danilov.
In the top 50 banks, which may qualify for the existing mechanisms of capitalization, accounting for about 85% of the sector’s assets, reminds senior analyst Aleks, so that the withdrawal from the market more than 200 banks outside the top 50 is not critical.
From the point of view of academic analysts optimally 300-500 banks, and we ?? more than 800, the potential for reducing the huge, nothing serious, says Orlov. « In the top 200 banks account for about 95% of the banking sector in different markets, ?? she recalls. ?? Care of other banks serving 5% of the market, the economy is not catastrophic. Basically this pocket banks that do not have a central bank function for lending to the economy. ” Danilov even more categorical: the Russian banking system banks need much less than it is now ?? 200 maximum. He, however, did not consider small banks doomed, because many of them capitalization ratio higher than that of the big banks, so the main thing ?? that there is no outflow of deposits.
President of the Association of Regional Banks Anatoly Aksakov believes the outlook is not so bleak: « The situation is not dramatic, I believe that many perfectly [well] will come out of the current problems. But consolidation will take place ».
The representative of the Central Bank declined to comment, citing a week of silence before the meeting of the board of directors on the key rate ( is scheduled for January 30), and the issues of state medium-sized banks forwarded to the government. It is not true that we will only help banks in the first hundred, and the rest is not, says a federal official: « will not help everyone, all money is not enough, but the principle of selection will be different ».
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