Russia to find a way out of the impasse Photo: Fotolia / Sergey Nivens 
First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov acknowledged that Russia’s economy is undergoing a structural crisis, and the entry into it began before the annexation of the Crimea and the introduction of Western sanctions. In this economic model to replace the first deputy prime minister devotes three years. Banki.ru portal economists figured out which indicators are indicative of Russia’s withdrawal from the crisis, and if we can do it without the lifting of sanctions.
At the business breakfast Sberbank in Davos within World Economic Forum, the first Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the Russian economy has entered a structural crisis even before the military conflict in Ukraine. He also did not rule out that the difficult economic situation in the country could get even worse. “You have to understand that Russia is in a very difficult situation. Our economic situation is bad, it can get worse, can remain such, it may happen in 2009 that the prices of our main export products will grow and it will seem that the economy is not all bad, “- Shuvalov said. According to Shuvalov, the Russian economy must be reformatted for three years.
In 2014, according to preliminary estimates of the Ministry, the economy grew by 0.5-0.6%. The Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said earlier that the new working estimate of the GDP forecast for 2015 – a decline of 3% at an oil price of $ 60 per barrel. Inflation in Russia at the end of last year was 11.4%. Alexei Ulyukayev expects inflation to the end of January to 13.5% in annual terms, and in 2015 inflation, according to the minister, will be not less than 10%. Net capital outflow from Russia in 2014, according to the Central Bank, was a record 151.5 billion dollars. Ministry of Economic Development in 2015, predicts “reducing” churn up 118 billion. However, the figures for 2015 may be revised by the beginning of February, when the Ministry of Economic Development shall prepare a new macroeconomic forecast, based on which the government will rewrite this year’s budget.
In general, these figures and forecasts for 2015 are a reflection of the crisis in the economy. On the recovery may indicate different indicators. Moreover, some of them can be retarded and some – faster. According to the director of the analytical department of the IR “Region” Valery Weisberg, the main signals of economic recovery – is the growth of consumption and recovery in investment activity. “When we fix the inflow of capital, we can talk about sustainable economic recovery. Then the GDP will be positive, and inflation declined markedly, “- says Weisberg. Now Russia is becoming less attractive in the investment plan, especially for foreign investors against the backdrop of threats to reduce the country’s rating.
«As a bitter joke as an indicator of the crisis can be called the price of oil, because our economy is very sensitive to it, – said the researcher at the Institute” Development Center “HSE Dmitry Miroshnichenko. – Speaking More seriously, from a simple statistics highlight the dynamics of rental rates of office and retail real estate, as well as unemployment figures ».
Deputy Head of the Economic Forecasting Center Gazprombank Petronevich Maxim believes that there are three groups of factors that would indicate about improvements in the economy. “The most reliable evidence – the situation of the population growth of final demand, accompanied by improved expectations of entrepreneurs. However, GDP statistics comes with a considerable lag – three or four months – so it can only confirm that quarter ago, the economy began to rebound. From synchronous indicators of recovery can be identified dynamics of retail trade turnover and imports – these data are monitored on a monthly basis and published without significant delay. Among the factors leading early recovery, in relation to the current situation, we can consider the oil price and the placement volume in the domestic and foreign markets ».
If we consider the formal criteria to overcome the crisis, to which the director of the Center for Structural Studies Institute for Economic Policy Gaidar Mikhail Khromov refers GDP, industrial production, investment, incomes, after the transition from recession to growth will take some time before the economy reaches pre-crisis levels. “So, after the crisis of 2008-2009, most of the indicators pre-crisis level was reached only in 2012, although growth resumed in 2010-m” – like an expert.
With regard to sanctions as a factor preventing the withdrawal of Russia from the crisis, according to Petronevich of Gazprombank, their cancellation is not mandatory, although desirable condition for the beginning of growth. According to principal analyst Alexei Kozlov UFS IC, restrictions in international trade is a good stimulus for the development of their own sectors of the economy. Dmitry Miroshnichenko very much doubt that the economy can now get out of the systemic crisis without the lifting of sanctions, as we are not able to eliminate a significant technological gap.
«Sanctions are now in Russia some datum in which to live. Economic recovery, conducted through structural reforms can happen without the lifting of sanctions. Now need to raise the level of competition, a major liberalization of the business environment, the market for goods and services, and, of course, reduce the tax burden, not increase it, “- says Valery Weisberg.
If we consider the state of the banking sector, the positive trends will appear only after the central bank to reduce the key rate. Until that happens, we will see a serious deterioration in margins and capital adequacy, says Weisberg.
«For the banking sector the most important task at the exit from the crisis will address the issue of” bad “debt. A distinctive feature of the previous crisis was that the nominal volume of distressed assets accumulated almost did not decrease. A formal performance improvement in credit quality occurred only due to growth in new loans and increasing customer debt “- concludes Michael chrome.
Julia Titova, Banki.ru
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