Price Crisis
«This plan will require more resources,” – warned the in a meeting with the president of First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov . He commended them to 1.375 trillion rubles. But “we [the event] will refine and complement. Most likely, the plan will expand, mean other financial obligations, “- said the official.
Several sources RBC’s financial and economic bloc of the government say that right now the price issue more. Firstly, voiced figure does not include 1 trillion rubles. on subordinated loans through DIA and 250 billion rubles. on the recapitalization of the banking system. In addition, the decision has been made about the transfers to the Pension Fund for the indexation of actual inflation in 2014 in the amount of 188 billion rubles.
All these measures are painted in a bobschennom the ministry version of the plan (there RBC). According to him, all require more than 2.7 trillion rubles. Save only managed to additional indexation of pensions due to the expected in the first half of 2015 inflation rate of 6%, which insisted that the social block. Opposed by the Economic Development Ministry.
Where is the money
Events in the plan are divided into three areas: boosting economic growth, support for sectors of the economy and social protection of citizens. “The sources of funding, in addition to already budgeted, no,” – said a source in the financial and economic block of the government. Reduce the current budget is almost impossible, since more than half of its costs – is the state defense order and transfer of pension funds, which are forbidden to touch, he throws up his hands.
«There is a part of indirect costs is provided in the form of the allocation of state guarantees that is still the parameters of the federal budget, and some – it means NWF “- Shuvalov said at the meeting. Still it is possible to increase the budget deficit. Shuvalov promised that it will not exceed the level of 2009. Then it was 5.9% of GDP, and the government had to freeze the “fiscal rule”, which limits the deficit of 1% of GDP. The level of the budget deficit for 2015 is not yet defined in the amount of 0.6% of GDP.
«A significant budget deficit is inevitable for us. I think that more than 1.5-2 per cent would be necessary, – said earlier RBC chief economist VEB Klepach. – This means further more stringent budget cuts. A significant part of the reforms and structural changes just have to be postponed ».
signal regions
At the meeting, Putin discussed the mechanisms for managing anti-crisis measures, among them – the creation of up to 16 February regional crisis staffs. Regions will give new powers – the right to revitalize small and medium-sized businesses make their own decisions about lowering their tax burden.
From the federal government plans to establish a commission was not launched, as long as no instruction to report on the state of Affairs and the Commission, RBC says one of the governors. “Why should I [such] indication, I myself have been working – says one of them. – But if we are asked, of course, we will report ».
The actual work to monitor the situation with the economy in the region is already underway, say three governors. Formalized crisis management committee, usually headed by First Deputy Governor, who discuss the situation with the ministers of finance and economic and social units, head of housing and communal services, construction, industry, agriculture and others.
“We are working on a weekly basis, in the daily routine – my first deputy – says Kaluga Region Governor Anatoly Artamonov. – [Commission] started working right after the holidays. We analyze the cost of each ministry, each budget institution and each municipality. By the end of January, the data must be reported to the [regional] government, we will take three scenarios of economic development, will be appropriately adjusted costs. In scenario-based tax revenues. ” Artamonov told RBC that formalize the work of the commission he intends this week on Friday.
In Khakassia such a commission has been in existence for six years – since the 2008 crisis -2009′s, told RBC Chief of Staff head of the republic Vladimir Byzov . She’s going to “periodically” plans because of the crisis to change her job, no, he explains. «I myself spend meetings an d briefings. We know what to do, we need the support of the president, the government, the banks, so that we have implemented projects that have “- said RBC governor of Tambov region Oleg Betin .
The main problem in the regions will be linked to tax revenues and industry, say two governors. “Now [the federal government] is a lot of debate and develop approaches [to the exit from the crisis]. We are waiting for decisions that need to be worked out, – says another source RBK – Governor. – Government officials tell us that we must [first] to provide working capital ».
The specifics of Moscow in the region are waiting after the federal government decided on the final parameters of the anti-crisis program. On Monday, January 26, Putin expects the government revised version of the plan, before February 1, Government mandated to prepare a new macroeconomic forecast. On this basis, it is assumed in late February to make changes to the federal budget.
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