Even the business asks for a mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings exporters
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The government and entrepreneurs have developed two different anti-crisis plan. The differences between these plans in principle. The Government yesterday announced that it is going to find to combat the crisis to 1.4 trillion rubles., Including in the form of state guarantees. However, a list of all anti-crisis measures have not yet fully made up, warned the first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. The costs of the budget will be cut by 10-15%, said yesterday in Davos, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. However, the business requires the authorities to a – tax cuts and the introduction of compulsory sale of half of foreign exchange earnings. This turnaround plan will send to President Vladimir Putin of Small and Medium Enterprises “Support of Russia».
The budgetary expenditures this year could cut back on everything but the social and military spheres. “We will reduce some of the costs. But we will not cut the b udget in half. We will reduce by 10%, maybe 15%. Most likely – by 10%, “- said yesterday Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Reasons for saving two from Russia – cheap oil and low domestic demand. So, Dvorkovich admitted that quotes can even short-term collapse to 25-30 dollars. Per barrel, but then they bounce, and the average for the year, the price will be slightly higher than current levels. Dvorkovich expects the “low oil prices persist for a long time,” so some of the projects will become less profitable and in Russian oil production will contract. “We can lose up to 10% of production – about 1 million barrels. a day, “- said Deputy Prime Minister.
According to Dvorkovich, Russia will be able to balance the budget at any price for oil. Problems begin when cheap oil is added to the low domestic demand. All together it is fraught with the economic downturn.
So that the budget would have probably podsokratit. “We have the ability to reduce budget expenditures everywhere except in the social sphere. While justification for reducing military spending is not. It is important to make an effective army, armed, modern. It will be cheaper than defer these costs, “- he explained.
But the number of investment projects and “inefficient subsidies”, as evident from the words of Deputy Prime Minister, may fall under sequestration.
The state will direct budgetary and reserve funds for “the most important priorities.” According to Dvorkovich, the first quarter of 2015 a key priority – the stabi lity of the banking system as a whole in 2015, the priority of the government – to maintain the stability of the fiscal system. Even with the lower rating levels we will find opportunities to finance our priorities, said Deputy Prime Minister.
Of course, the Russian economy feels not the best way, but now also a special disaster occurs. Dvorkovich told in Davos, the danger of default is not, mass protests because of budgetary savings likely will not be the growth of the consumer price authorities will try to avoid the standard of living in the country is better than 5-10 years ago, unemployment and relatively low public debt, the ruble stop drop as soon as the oil is stabilized at any level.
The alarm has sounded a note only in response to a question about the possibility of foreign exchange restrictions. “Never say” never “- said Dvorkovich, and then he added: – But the president and the government said that we will not do it».
Less than rosy picture of the world outlined yesterday at a forum in Davos, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. The recession of the Russian economy will last for two years, during which foreign companies are likely partially collapsed business in Russia, anti-Russian regime of sanctions in this case could last three years, Russia will take at least 10 years to restore the status of the ruble – lists Kudrin Russian prospects as investors, and journalists.
The ex-minister slightly sweetened forecasts assurance that Russia has a chance to maintain sovereign credit rating to investment grade. Kudrin also gave advice to the government yesterday to spend the Reserve Fund at a rate to be enough volume for three years when the forecast oil price of $ 60. Per barrel.
The representatives of the largest Russian banks yesterday also did not differ with optimism. According to Interfax, the head of VTB Andrei Kostin said that “this year will be the most difficult for the Russian economy.”
«The privatization process and the process of entering the open market stopped, and we have to turn to a single source – the state. And of course, this is not the way that we dreamed of. But we do not have much choice at the moment, “- he said.
Along with the Davos forum crisis and anti-crisis measures were discussed yesterda y at a special meeting with Vladimir Putin, who, as Dvorkovich said, too much to do in Russia to go to Switzerland.
The President explained why Russia is once again in crisis. Today’s problems in the country provoked from the outside. “I would like to remind you that this is not the first situation of this kind, which we go through. In 2008 and 2009 we were. And then, too, the crisis came from outside. It began with the collapse of the mortgage system in the United States, “- said Putin. Now, the catalyst of the crisis – the situation on foreign commodity markets.
The sanctions in this case, as should the president of the explanations, of minor importance for the Russian economy. “If we talk about the so-called Sanctions effect, then let me remind you that in the context of the 2008 crisis wishing to provide loans to Russian financial institutions, too, something I do not remember,” & #8211; said Putin. In 2008, Russia solves its problems “exclusively own funds, based on our development institutions and existing reserves, and in this sense, little has changed,” – said Putin.
Almost did not change the structure of the Russian economy – acknowledged the president. But now the external circumstances are pushing the country to accelerate structural changes.
In turn, the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev at yesterday’s meeting, the President reported that his office on Tuesday made a turnaround plan to the government.
A First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said how much will cost the country the implementation of the anti-crisis program – almost 1.4 trillion rubles.
«This plan will require more resources in order to fulfill it. Those measures, which are now marked in the plan – he inconc lusive – we will refine and complement them. Most likely it will expand – Shuvalov said. – Under this plan, we now need to finance activities at 1 trillion 375 billion rubles. This money is not the direct costs of the federal budget. Is part of the indirect costs of the allocation provided in the form of state guarantees, part – the National Welfare Fund “.
According to Shuvalov, president generally endorsed such a turnaround plan.
Also, First Deputy Prime Minister confirmed that the budget will change. According to him, the Ministry of Economic Development requested to submit by 1 February a new forecast of socio-economic development, on the basis of which the government is likely to end of February to prepare an amendment to the federal law on the budget for 2015.
While the authorities were discussing who is to blame and what to do, business representatives hav e prepared his own version of anti-crisis measures, because, it seems, the government has been slow to take into account the position of the business, which seemed to promise support.
Yesterday, “Support of Russia” has published its version of anti-crisis measures for small businesses. A list of 25 proposals will soon be sent to the president.
In particular, businessmen offered to delay the introduction of trading fees from 1 July 2015 in the near future; reduce the tax burden on income tax due to the federal component of from 20% to 18%; reduce the number of machine control and supervisory bodies at 20%; Central Bank to lower its key rate from 17% to 12%; provide for the possibility of participation of small and medium-sized enterprises in project financing.
But the real sensation of the list of measures was required to enter the mandatory sale of exporting 50% of foreign exchang e earnings.
In fact, as the president says, “Support of Russia” Alexander Kalinin, “the rejection of the introduction of compulsory sale of foreign exchange earnings in terms of sanctions and high capacity of the currency market will lead to the fact that the only major vendor currency in the face of the Bank of Russia will be forced to spend limited scope for stabilize the situation ».
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