It is necessary to prepare for a long crisis and unemployment – these were the main points of the first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He also complained about the different views of the Central Bank and the government to solve economic problems and mentioned that Russia’s economy has not had time to prepare for the crisis because of high oil prices. Economists were surprised such rhetoric and recalled that it Shuvalov oversaw economic bloc in the government in recent years.
bleak future
«Russia is in an extremely difficult situation. Our economic situation is bad, it can get worse, can remain such, it may happen in 2009 that the prices of our main export products will grow and it will seem that the economy is still bad “- quoted Shuvalov” Izvestia “. He noted that the current situation in the Russian economy is perceived not as acute as the crisis of 2008-2009, but the “bad state of feeling a deeper».
«we observe the external manifestations such as if it is softer than in 2009. But this is only apparent ease. In fact, the depth and complexity seems to me that we are already in a state of year when we are entering a more protracted and complex crisis “- quoted the official Tass.
At the same time, according to Vice the prime minister, the Russian economy plunged into a structural crisis even before the conflict in Ukraine. Shuvalov said that Russia did not come out of the crisis of 2008, as has already begun to gently enter another, “even before the events in Ukraine and that is associated with the Crimea, because we started to lose rapidly growth and it was clear that there comes a structural crisis ».
According to the official,” the destruction of the Russian economy that the modernization agenda, which appeared due to the crisis of 2008-2009, was quickly washed away and replaced with an increase in oil prices. ” Shuvalov said that Russia must prepare and increased unemployment.
In this case, Shuvalov said that structural reforms in the economy of the Russian Federation shall be carried out in the next three years. According to him, the agenda for economic reforms in the country must be reformatted. And this must be done in a “very short period of time – for example, a three-year cycle.” According to him, it should be a separate reform agenda to be discussed publicly.
First Deputy Prime Minister said that the government’s anti-crisis plan to help businesses and households to adapt to new conditions, when no longer high income and high oil prices, and should be designed for helping to adapt to the “hard landing” of the economy.
And are there any plans?
Given that one of these days, US President Barack Obama said the sanctions broke the Russian economy in tatters, the performance of a high-ranking Russian official in Davos, according to some experts, it looked as recognition of the correctness of the thesis of the American leader. Economists were also surprised by the fact that, speaking of the problems and the unwillingness of the Russian economy to the crisis, Shuvalov forgot about the responsibility – and all your personal cabinet – for the current “economic model”.
According to the president of consulting company “Neocon” Mikhail Khazin, all the problems of the Russian economy – it is primarily the result of the work of the government, including the most Shuvalov.
«Sanctions really played a very small and very minor role. If the government is pursuing a correct economic policy, we would not notice and sanctions. The crisis began long before the sanctions. The decline began in 2012, and real growth stopped 5 years ago. After the 2008 crisis, when we have fallen sharply, was recovery growth, the feeling of growth. By 2012, the recovery growth ended. Began a slow decline. But imposed sanctions, which under the current economy, refinanced in dollars, have a major impact, “- commented Hazin edition.
According to him, his statements Shuvalov as a member of the government blames himself with sanctions “would indicate that Obama said that sanctions have affected, and we had nothing to do».
Economists note: the reason “blurring modernization agenda”, mentioned by Shuvalov – also the result of the work of the Cabinet. “The government simply does not know how to behave in a given situation, they do not have such experience. They are so used to the high price of oil, to the fact that the ruble was stable, about sanctions generally no one believed. Now, if you look at the actions of our government, they are quite clueless, are not clear “, – says Alexei Mukhin, director of the Center for Political Information.
On the unwillingness to confront the crisis of representatives of the liberal wing of the government specifies and director of the Institute of Globalization Problems Mikhail Delyagin. According to him, meaningful Shuvalov absolutely right – this crisis will be very heavy, more than in 2008. But he tactfully silent about the fact that the main cause of the crisis – a social-liberal economic policies of the clan, including the government, in which he holds the second highest position.
«Given that the government he oversees just all socio-economic policies, the crisis is, in my opinion – is the fruit of his own activities. I think the liberal clan – these are people who do not live for the sake of freedom, but for the sake of global business services. Shuvalov statement does not differ not only by the tone of Obama’s statements, but also on the positions that the authors of these statements hold. Socio-economic policy of the government is aimed at deepening the crisis and anti-crisis measures are only aggravating character. And the devaluation of the ruble, and a stampede of capital began in January last year, and when oil was expensive, and there were no sanctions, “- said Delyagin.
The expert adds that now the government has adopted an anti-crisis plan, but Shuvalov does not say that with his help we will overcome everything. “He tells how things will be bad. Do people in the government do not know that in times of crisis it is necessary to weaken taxes and administrative pressure? They act strictly on the contrary, “- said the source publication.
GAME FOR INTERNAL USE
However, many analysts argue that there is nothing new in Davos, Deputy Prime Minister not announced and it will have no impact on the ruble or the sentiment. “I see no reason for superoptimistichnyh government statements. Make positive statements of the country who want to attract capital. If we have the disappointment of how financial markets work, it is logical that there is no desire to win the trust of foreign capital is not observed “, – said the chief economist at Alfa Bank, Natalia Orlova.
With her agrees director of Research Institute for Economic Policy Gaidar, Sergei Drobyshevskiy. “In my opinion, this is one of the performances, which is quite critical about the current situation and prospects of being built. For example, the idea that this crisis is unlike previous longer – and it has been said the president – is consistent with the logic of anti-crisis measures taken by the government, “- said the expert.
According to Drobyshevsky, statements Shuvalov will not affect the market. “All of these risks have already played them, on the contrary, a positive statement would cause an even greater decline, investors would have thought that the government does not understand what’s going on,” – he said.
Political analysts do not exclude that, addressing an audience of foreign, Shuvalov expect a reaction within the country. “There was a saying in the international format, and it was paid to outside investors. It is clear that here was made by Deputy Prime Minister in the Ministry of Finance position, which draws apocalyptic predictions to ensure control by the authorities, and on the other hand, is an attempt to forestall due to an exaggerated idea of threats that will give the effect of training. Exaggeration in the external circuit – it is one of the ways the government. “- Says the vice-president of the Center for Strategic Comm unications Dmitry Abzalov.Notice error in the news? Highlight the desired track and press the Ctrl and Enter
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