Photo: RIA Novosti / Alexander Kondratyuk
Since the beginning of the year 1 August price increase amounted to 3.9%, according to Rosstat Thursday. Compared to last year, when the rate was at 9.4%, the latest “achievements” of inflation seem to be very modest. And when you consider that in the last week of July was deflation, and the Central Bank, “Izvestia” reported that according to the forecast decline in prices last control in August and September, this year, there is every chance keep inflation within projected. And for the first time since 2013, ie since the beginning of the second wave of the crisis, inflation will be determined by single digits. But is this positive?
Following the notification of the change in consumer prices in the last week of July, when there was deflation, Rosstat published the results in general in July. The indicators also were quite modest. In July, prices rose by 0.5%, since the beginning of the year – by 3.9% (in July 2015 – 0.8%, since the beginning of the year – 9,4%)
«In July. compared with the previous month, food prices on average remained unchanged. The dynamics of food prices primarily affected their decline in fruit and vegetable products “, – commented on the results of the Federal State Statistics Service in July.
So, vegetable prices fell by 11.2%. Champions were tomatoes and cucumbers of the new harvest, which fell by 27.6% and 23.4%, respectively. Among other observable types of food became cheaper: beef liver – by 0.6%, mutton – by 0.3%, pork – by 0.2%, cheese – by 0.2%. However, not all products became cheaper. For example, buckwheat has risen by 3.3%. Rising prices of 0.8-1.5% was observed in the chicken, chocolate, alcohol.
However, the fact of deflation (prices in the last week of July fell by 0.1%) leaves the hope that once, the Central Bank will be able not only to keep inflation within the target, but also to achieve a clear indicator that the controller was not available in 2013 (6.47%). In 2014, prices have risen already to 11.35% and in 2015 – 12,91%
At the end of last year, for example, the head of the Accounting Chamber Tatyana Golikova confidently stated that the lower the price just doubled. unrealistic, and therefore insisted that it is not necessary to put obviously unattainable goal.
However, the Central Bank of the forces assured. The official representative of the regulator said “News” that the Bank of Russia does not change the target forecast of annual inflation – 5-6%. At the same time the Central Bank expects that deflation will last a long time
-. The favorable outlook for the harvest gives reason to expect a seasonal decline in prices in August and September of food products in the first place – for fruit and vegetables, – stressed in Central Bank.
Central Bank is likely to fulfill its purpose is not, but the puncture is in the range of 0.5 pp, believes economist, assistant professor of HSE Anton Tabah. Although, it sure deflation him this will not help. According to the economist, in October-December, the effect of the pending election expenses.
– In addition, the rise in prices will affect cheap oil and the ruble, which, according to my forecast, will weaken for autumn, – says Anton Tabah.
Analyst investment company EXANTE Cyril Kononovich also believes that deflation will end with the arrival of autumn and will not have a significant impact on the annual inflation rate.
– At its core, this is a temporary phenomenon. It is caused by non-structural changes in the economy, – the analyst believes.
In his view, the key factor that will have an impact on inflation and allow it to stay at a relatively low level, is the reduction of solvent demand of the population. Cyril Kononovich believes that consumer activity, fading summer, will quicken the fall. Anton Tabah sure is it will stagnate, since the revival need some decisive action by the Central Bank. For example, the economist points out, if the central bank will lower its key rate significantly and this bill will increase lending. In addition, the push consumer demand would increase revenues, he said.
– In the comments on the key rate of the Central Bank noted that he expects GDP growth in the second half of this year. However, economic recovery in the country is impossible without income growth. Under these conditions, inflation is inevitable, – said Kirill Kononovich
In his view, what is now helping to contain inflation, -. Decrease in real incomes and consumer spending – in the next year has already come out against the Central Bank.
– The target level of 4% by the end of next year is unlikely, – predicts analyst
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