«Oil of Russia», 24.08.16, Moscow, 11:17 In August, the price of Brent crude oil barrel, which determines the price of Russia’s Urals It increased by almost 15 percent, but since the beginning of this week the quotations plummeted, breaking the mark of 49 dollars per barrel. According to analysts, the current rally and the price adjustment linked to a large extent with the game of speculators on the stock exchange, and volatility will continue until the end of autumn.
Oil stepping on a slippery track, which is formed by the application of the probability of the next negotiations on the frozen prey leading producer and seasonal repairs in refineries (refinery). September is usually the already bad month for oil: in the past year over the last month it fell in price by 12 percent in 2014 to nine, and in 2013 at 5,5
Bouquet of positive news for the oil market in the first three weeks of August formed a weakening of the dollar against global currencies, new records in the stock markets, the closing of short positions (bets on falling oil prices) and information about the meeting of the Organization of countries – petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) in September . Algeria
“Meanwhile, the time for further growth is still there, and maybe we will see new highs – in the area of Brent 53 – $ 55 per barrel, – experts say the agency” Analysis of commodity markets. ” – on the other hand, the market decline may begin at any time, and the first target price fall – 46 dollars “
Now subsidence quotes primarily due to speculative factors, because fundamentally nothing has changed.. Commercial US crude inventories already 14 percent higher than in August last year, and the number of drilling rigs operating from the beginning of June this year increased by 80 units.
“The oil market is quite a long time can remain in the current oscillation range 40 – $ 50 per barrel – an analyst at commodity markets “Opening Broker” Oksana Lukicheva -. by reducing the price below $ 40, we will see the activation of conversations manufacturers about the possibility of achieving reduction of production arrangements, and a rise in prices above $ 50 calls a reminder of the high level of reserves. ” It is a vicious circle.
The last time negotiations were held between the frozen production by 11 OPEC countries (excluding Iran and Libya, and Gabon, who restored the membership of the cartel last July) and six non-member countries in the organization, including Russia. The active phase of negotiations began in January, when Brent fell below $ 30 a barrel. Even such low prices do not allow the participants of the meeting on April 17 in Doha to reach a compromise, but the goal is the de facto been achieved: As explained after talks Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, “before we sat and waited for the balancing of 27 dollars, and now 40″ .
Now the situation looks much better balance waiting for “sitting” on 45 – 50. “If oil futures hold out until the end of the year at $ 45 per barrel, the average Urals oil price of $ 40 to be tightened “, – analysts say the Bank of Saint-Petersburg. This introduction assumes an average exchange rate of the dollar 68 rubles, which gives at least some room for maneuver to the Russian federal budget. Now he laid the Urals oil price of $ 50 at the rate of “American” 63.3 rubles, and in the fall, most likely, there will be a long-awaited correction values
Is this the field borders expanded to the likely freeze -. The big question but Alexander Novak back in mid-August, he considered that “the door for further negotiations remains open.” Experts say that surprises can happen at a meeting in Algeria, although this is unlikely. Will the Russian side there is – as yet unknown, but the meeting of the RF energy dialogue – OPEC is already planned for October in Vienna.
In the fall and ends in the fiscal year in the United States, and the refinery in September begins seasonal prophylaxis. This may support the prices of petroleum products, causing a reduction in stocks and at the same time reducing the demand for crude oil, adds Oksana Lukicheva. However, it is rather a signal of future market volatility, rather than the strengthening of the positions of oil.
FIGURE
55 dollars per barrel, but no more, analysts expect this year Brent
Alexander Vozdvizhenskaya read more on http://www.oilru.com/news / 529662 /
No comments:
Post a Comment