VEB saw the risks to the business growth of wages of Russians – RBC

building VEB

Photo: Grigory Sysoev / RIA Novosti

The strengthening of the ruble and a renewed increase in wages will help in the recovery in consumer demand since 2017, according to a new forecast VEB. But these factors can worsen the situation of the business

After last year’s collapse in real wages by 9.3% Russians economy will need five years to play this fall, follows from published on Monday Vnesheconombank macroeconomic forecast. While the average annual growth of real wages in the years 2017-2020 will amount to 2.8%, the level of 2014 will be able to recover only towards the end of the forecast period – in 2020, according to a report VEB

Back in March, in the previous version. macroeconomic forecast, VEB assumed that the real wages of Russians dropped by 5.4% in 2016, but now expects growth of 0.7%. Another key adjustment of the forecast is a revision of the ruble in the direction of strengthening: the basic version of EBV scenario sees the dollar in 2017 at around 60 rubles, in 2018 –

about 55 rubles And then, and more -.. the growth of wages and the strengthening of the ruble – the driver will restore consumer demand since 2017, but at the same time and they are also risk factors for the economy, it follows from the report of the VEB. “A stronger ruble and rising labor costs may be faster than expected, to exhaust the potential of improving the competitiveness both domestically and in foreign markets”, – analysts warn Development Bank

The growth of the real effective rate of the ruble over. 30% in 2020, lay in the base case scenario of the bank, “will worsen financial performance of companies and lead to the loss of competitiveness of the industrial and tourism sectors.” It was and external demand, “confident” feeling of export-oriented industries (oil, chemical manufacturing, metal, wood), he is now a driver of economic recovery, according to VEB. To the excessive strengthening of the ruble this did not stop, the Central Bank policy can be partially redirected to the goal of reducing inflation to 4% in the direction of the ruble deterrence by foreign exchange intervention, it offers VEB “moderately optimistic” scenario. The beneficiaries of a weaker ruble exchange rate by the Federal budget and the enterprise, and the main defeated party will be households recognize the analysts.

Thus, Vnesheconombank in its forecast supported the point of view of presidential aide Andrei Belousov, who said last month that pereukreplyayuschiysya ruble “is working in the negative, reduces budget revenues”, “reduces the competitiveness of the Russian industry.” Prior to this, on the strengthening of the ruble issue drew the attention President Vladimir Putin.

Control the growth of wages would have helped the economy, but the state has a social obligation, VEB says. “While the fall in wages facilitate the fight against inflation and to maintain the competitiveness of domestic products, the current crisis actually has generated significant social debt, especially in the public sector, which will have to return for several years”, – the report says. However, public sector workers, who account for over 20% of all employed in the economy will not see growth in real wages until 2018, when the figure is only a little older, it follows from the forecast VEB. Up to 2020 the growth of wages in Russia will be provided mainly by the corporate sector, should the forecast

The cost of the labor force -. Indeed, one of the main constraints of the potential growth of the Russian economy, says the chief economist at Alfa Bank, Natalia Orlova. In terms of finance companies increased their costs, and they do not have arguments to invest, she says. In Russia, 15 years, wages grew, outpacing productivity growth, said earlier rating agency ACRA in its forecast till 2020. State broadcast of the export revenue in wages, but in the new conditions of real wage cuts in government spending in the public sector will restrain labor costs, and it gives a chance to the “beginning of the first 20 years of a long period of unit labor cost reduction.”