Oil returned to “bullish” trend – RBC

Photo: Hasan Jamali / AP

With August 2nd world oil benchmark Brent and WTI rose by more than 20%, marking a return to the market “bull” trend

at auction August 18 oil futures Brent and WTI crossed the mark of $ 50.16 and $ 47, 41, respectively, showing an increase of more than 20% of the local minima recorded on 2 August. This means that from a technical point of view back “bullish” trend (bull market) on the oil market. The news traders dispersed prices even higher: Brent October futures on Thursday evening briefly exceeded $ 51 per barrel. As of 21:45 Moscow time a barrel of Brent traded on the ICE Futures Exchange at $ 50.71, while US WTI on NYMEX – at $ 48.14. This is an increase of more than 21% from the lows of early August.

In this case, Brent crude going up the sixth day in a row, showing the longest “rally” from March 2016.

On the background of oversupply in the US WTI discount to Brent continues to increase. Last time WTI traded as cheap relative to Brent (the international benchmark) in December of 2015. Excess oil in the United States proved to be more than expected at the beginning of the year, Bloomberg explained the main raw analyst at BNP Paribas in London, Harry Chilingiryan. “Of WTI it makes no sense to strengthen against Brent, as this will spur imports into the US light sweet crude oil [tied to the Brent price]” – Chilingiryan says

«Bull” market quickly replaced the “bearish.”. Since the beginning of June to end of July WTI and Brent fell by 20%. But in August, conditions turned

Now Support prices have a reduction in US oil inventories and expectations of measures to stabilize the market, which can take on the informal meeting of OPEC in late September. US crude stocks fell by the end of last week by 2.5 million barrels to 521.1 million, follows from the US Energy Information Administration report, the Ministry of Energy (EIA). Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast that the index, on the contrary, will increase by 950 thousand. Barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels to 232.7 million

«Suddenly, a sharp reduction in oil and gasoline [in the US] caused a jump in prices, -. Told Bloomberg analyst at Global Risk Management Michael Poulsen. – Left last weekly data on inventories were significantly lower than forecast. ” Traders are still of the opinion that the surplus stocks of petroleum products will not hit the market as much as previously thought. “Consistent reduction in gasoline stocks in the United States the third consecutive week, as well as discussions in OPEC production freeze partly offset the pressure of” bears “on the market”, – he said The Wall Street Journal lead analyst for commodity markets SEB Markets Bjarne Skildrop

<. p> quotations increase partly contribute to hedge funds and speculators, the interest rate change cycle to reduce the price of oil on the rate cycle on its appreciation. “When the release data on the record short positions on the polar trend is replaced, the situation is very dramatic,” – said The Wall Street Journal, Bob Yoger of Mizuho Securities USA. In addition, the market is pushing up the application of OPEC, he said. As a result, today concluded the informal talks the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia Khalid al-Falih said that oil producers in September, may take measures to stabilize the market.

Left on Thursday oil statistics Cooperative Initiative (Joint Organisations Data Initiative, JODI ) that the world’s leading oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, in June increased its oil supplies abroad, have been able to prevent the “bulls” on the market. Index in June rose to a three-month high – 7.5 million barrels per day. However, according to the company Oil Movements, which tracks the movement of oil tankers, for four weeks before 3 September oil exports from OPEC (excluding Ecuador, Angola, Indonesia and Gabon) will decrease by 330 th. Barrels per day to 23.54 million barrels ., as compared to the four-week period to August 6

according to the former head of the OPEC Hakiba Helila, OPEC may agree to freeze production, as production of the largest exporters – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Russia – is already on maximum. Oversupply in the global oil market has reduced, and the market seems to be back to balance next year, Khelil added. But, as told Bloomberg chief investment officer of the hedge fund Armored Wolf Family Holdings John Bryunyolfsson, the fundamental reasons for the continued growth of oil prices, he does not see. He noted that the excess production of oil has not yet been overcome, moreover, the oil-producing countries do not show the desire to reduce production.