Ukraine may not have enough gas for the winter. On Wednesday, deputy head of the department of foreign economic activity “Gazprom” Victor rolls in a conference call. According to him, the Russian gas monopoly is concerned about the level of injection into Ukrainian underground gas storage (UGS) – at the moment in which 2.2 billion cubic meters less than in last year’s season filling
«in the case of the cold harsh winter Ukraine can not provide the volume of gas transit through its territory to consumers in Western Europe”, -. warned shafts
The head of “Gazprom” Alexei Miller in early summer He expressed concern about the pace of filling Ukrainian underground storage facilities. According to him, the daily volume of injection was to be increased by 2.5 times.
On the 10th of August in Ukrainian storage facilities was 11.237 billion cubic meters. meters of gas (UGS filled about 36%). A year ago, the reserves amounted to 13.415 billion cubic meters. “The amount of gas in underground storage facilities of Ukraine really is significantly less than on the same date last year – says co-chairman of Ukrainian Fund of Energy Strategies Dmitry Marunich. – At the same time into the hands of Kiev played by factors reduce gas consumption in the country (from the beginning of the year by about 15%) »
« Gazprom »Warnings of a possible gas shortage in Ukraine. and the threat of transit have already become traditional – in recent years the monopoly makes several such applications per year
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The fact that the gas from the Ukrainian UGS is partially used for the growing of “Gazprom” the demand of European customers during peak periods of the heating season, and because of the lack of fuel in storage in Ukraine may suffer Europeans. But the main concern is related to the fact that not enough gas to Ukraine itself, which is why she can start siphoning of transit volumes. And through Ukraine to the EU is more than a third of all Russian gas exports:. In 2015 – 64.2 billion cubic meters from 159.4 billion
Last time such a selection has been fixed in 2009, while Russia and Ukraine are still arguing whether it was in fact.
«Gazprom» is then completely blocked the transit, leaving a few winter days, several countries in Europe stayed without gas, as not everyone had access to reserves.
in winter 2015-2016 years Ukraine could do without purchases of gas from Russia. However, mainly due the warm weather, significantly lower consumption (which was caused by the collapse of the industry), and the supply of gas for reversal of Europe.
Moreover, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in January 2016 , acknowledged that the Reverse deliveries were 30% more expensive than gas, the proposed Russia ($ 212 per 1 thousand. cubic meters).
In principle, Ukraine can do without Russian gas. The expert of the National Energy Security Fund, a political scientist Igor YUSHKOV says that the main factor is now Ukraine’s own consumption. “And what it will be – it is not clear – said the expert. – How much will be consumed gas, what will be the inter-fuel balance (coal deliveries to the unstable Ukraine), as well as weather risks – all this is unnerving «Gazprom»
Dmitry Marunych also recalls. that the last two winters were record warm. “From my point of view, there is the threat of a transit failure and / or supply within the country, especially if the winter will be cold,” – said the expert
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Technically, the heating season in Ukraine begins October 15, however, according to Marunych because of warm weather it is shifted to 10-14 in recent years days. The expert believes that the beginning of the heating season is quite possible to save up to 14.5 billion cubic meters of underground storage facilities, as previously said, “Naftogaz of Ukraine».
But these volumes, according Marunych, may not be enough to maintain the contractual pressures at the exit of the Ukrainian GTS in the winter when the growing transit of “Gazprom” and the possible low temperatures. The expert believes that it would be reasonable to accumulate in the UGS 16-17 billion cubic meters of gas
«However, this is not enough money, -. Indicates the co-chairman of FES. – In addition, “Naftogaz” miscalculated and are now forced to buy reversible gas is more expensive than in the second quarter (approximately $ 30 per 1 thousand cubic meters.) »
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«Gazprom», in turn, is nervous because of the fact that he does not control the entire chain and that all Ukraine to something depends, says Igor YUSHKOV.
according to the analyst, the Russian holding will signal Europe, referring to the need to start the next trilateral gas talks at the ministerial level. Such negotiations are also already become a tradition and begins, as a rule, a few months before the start of the heating season. The political scientist believes that the Russian gas monopoly thus wants to protect themselves against possible claims, advance warning of potential risks
In addition, a reminder of transit risks through Ukraine -. A favorite method of “Gazprom” in the debate about alternative routes gas transport. At the moment, those two, “Nord Stream – 2″ and “Turkish Stream”. The first project is already active opposition from a number of countries in Europe and again in Ukraine, where it threatens the loss of transit revenues (ex-Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk assessed them at $ 2 billion per year). In addition, the Commission considers that the “Nord Stream – 2″ can not fit into the norms of the Third Energy Package of the EU
«Turkish Stream” Moscow and Ankara have recovered a few days ago, the launch of the first branch is scheduled for the second half of 2019. of the year. However, there may be dissatisfied if will be built more than one branch, the European Union instead of dependent on him in Ukraine as a transit country will get too independent Turkey. In this connection, the EU can not be excluded attempt to discredit this project. In such a situation, “Gazprom” and it is necessary to prove the unreliability of the Ukrainian transit.
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