MOSCOW, August 18 -. RIA Novosti / Prime The trend in the growth of oil prices on the global market, if planned, it will be very moderate, analysts polled by RIA Novosti. According to them, the price of oil will reach the level of $ 60 per barrel until next year.
The world prices for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent began a gradual decline in six weeks ago with a mark of 50 dollars per barrel, having fallen to 41 8 dollars per barrel on 2 August. Since then, it has witnessed steady growth of quotations. Earlier rose above the psychological mark of $ 50 on Thursday, Brent crude oil price for the first time since July 5 per barrel
As at 10.33 MSK Brent oil price of October futures grew by 0.16% -. 49 94 dollars per barrel, while earlier it rose above 50.05 dollars per barrel. As at 12.27 MSK cost of the October futures for Brent crude was down 0.24% to 49.73 dollars per barrel.
Price expectations
According to the deputy head of the department government regulation of the economy of the Institute of public Administration and management RANHiGS Ivan Kapitonov, quotes on oil to a greater extent depend on the exchange of players, and not from the real indicators of production and demand.
“The oil stopped being so profitable asset to it do millions, but volatility still allows traders to earn well. Therefore, the oil price will fluctuate greatly, especially since stocks that had accumulated 30 or less per barrel, has not sold out. When the price exceeds the psychological threshold of $ 50 per barrel, begin to throw off the stocks, and the price will be pressured down, “- said the expert
Experts predict that in the near future the price corridor will be 45-52 dollars per barrel.. The period of volatility will continue for as long as traders do not find other volatile assets that the market is there.
“The main thing is that the price is hovering around $ 30-40, this is the hand of the Russian Federation budget. In the future, we see the volatility of around $ 60, but this will only happen in the middle of next year “, – predicts Kapitonov
in turn, the general director of the national energy Institute Sergei Pravosudov difficult to predict the price.. “Oil quotes difficult to forecast, this is largely guesswork. Traders by independent reasoning or collusion pay attention to some factors and decide what oil should increase, or vice versa, to fall. To say that it would be in the mind of traders, it is difficult” – it sure
according to the analyst “Veles Capital” Basil Tanurkova, for the rise in prices in recent days, there were two prerequisites
“first, yesterday the data released in the US stocks.. that suddenly were better than expected, reduced inventories of gasoline and distillate petroleum products. Secondly, the evening was published in July minutes of the meeting of the Federal reserve system (FRS), on the basis of which investors have concluded that the probability of a rate hike in the near future is not very high, which led to a decrease in the dollar and supported the quotations of oil, “- he said
According to Tanurkova, the growth of quotations of oil in recent years is largely due to currency factors.. “The dollar weakened sufficiently strongly to many emerging currencies after Brexit and against the background of a good situation in the Chinese economy”, – he said
At the same time, the expert noted that the fundamental prerequisites for the price of oil is also positive.. For example, the International Energy Agency and OPEC positively assess the demand for the current year. At the same time, OPEC expects that in 2017 the market of oil shortage will be about 600 thousand barrels per day on average in the year. Despite the fact that the view of the level of production in 2017 was divided (International Energy Agency believes that the production of non-OPEC countries will increase, OPEC, on the contrary, predicts a fall), the overall expectations for the price positive.
“The Earlier this year I had a conservative forecast of 55 dollars per barrel at the end of the year, an optimistic – $ 60 I still hold this view likelihood of achieving shortage of oil on the market is quite high, “-.. concluded Tanurcov
on. assessment IEA analysts, global demand for oil in 2016 will amount to 96.3 million barrels per day (an increase of 1.4 million barrels per day compared to 2015). It is expected that world oil demand in 2017 will amount to 97.5 million barrels per day. The IEA expects oil production in countries outside OPEC will decline by 0.9 million barrels per day in 2016, and in 2017 -. Will grow by 0.3 million barrels per day
OPEC in August unveiled forecast world oil demand in 2016, which, according to analysts, will amount to 94.26 million barrels per day. According to the forecast organization, global oil demand will rise to a record high of 95.41 million barrels per day in 2017.
According to OPEC, oil supplies from countries outside of OPEC, decline on the basis of 2016 0.79 million barrels per day – up to 56.13 million barrels. In 2017, as forecast, OPEC analysts, the index will continue to decline and reach 55.97 million barrels per day.
According to the OPEC forecasts, oil demand organization in 2017 will amount to 33 million barrels per day. In 2016 figure is expected to reach 31.9 million barrels per day – an increase compared with 2015 by 1.9 million barrels per day
.
No comments:
Post a Comment