The ruble updates four-month low against the dollar and the euro: this was not cheap ruble in late March of this year. The negative impact on the Russian ruble have a decline in oil prices and the expectation of the Fed rate hike. Even today, the ruble could break the mark of 60 rubles. the dollar, analysts say.
The euro exchange rate against the Russian ruble exceeded 66 rubles. This line of the single European currency broke the first time since the spring. The last time the European currency traded above that mark at auction on March 20. Day July 27, the euro / ruble in the calculations “tomorrow” recorded daily high at around 66.09 rubles. per euro.
The US currency in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has exceeded 59 rubles.
According to 14.05 MSK, the dollar already gave 59.67 rubles. – The worst result for the Russian currency since the end of March this year.
The average rate of dollar to ruble settlements “tomorrow” on a single trading session (UTS) on the Moscow stock exchange, on which the Central Bank set the official exchange rate, rose by 74.42 kopecks., reaching 58.7816 rubles. The official rate of the euro against the ruble, set by the Central Bank on Tuesday, rose by 1.47 rubles., To 65.0830 rubles. Dual currency basket value increased compared to the weekend and on Monday at 1.07 kopeks., Reaching 61.62 rubles.
The main reason for the weakening of the ruble is the situation in the commodities market. “Oil prices are falling. Last week they fell by almost 4.5%, “- explained” Gazeta.ru “Head of asset management KIT Finance Broker Yuri Archangel. As at 14.05 MSK, the cost of the August futures for Brent crude fell by 1.68% to $ 53.68 per barrel. The price of July futures for WTI crude oil fell by 1.25% to $ 47.54 per barrel.
At the level just above $ 54 Brent crude oil traded at the beginning of April this year.
The price of Russian Urals oil is tied to the quotations of North Sea oil. At the same time Russia’s budget for the current year been drawn up on the basis of oil price $ 50 per barrel and the dollar to 61.5 rubles.
Now the oil is influenced by several factors that keep prices at current levels. “Oil is cheaper on the background of growth in the number of drilling rigs in the US and fears of an increase in supply from Iran,” – said the expert, “BCS Express” Ivan Kopeikin. We are talking about the data published in a new report Friday Baker Hughes (one of the world leaders in the oilfield services industry), according to which the number of active rigs in the oil shale projects in the US for the week increased by 2.21%, to 876 units. In addition, investors continue to have concerns about the exit of Iran to the world market with large oil supplies following an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program.
«The slowdown in China and Europe, the increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States, raising the prospects of Fed rate that would deprive support risky assets, will lead to the strengthening dollar and weakening oil prices, Brent, are already below $ 55 per barrel “, – said Mark Bradford, an analyst at IG BCS.
The negative impact on the price of oil futures and provides an increase in oil exports from Iraq.
According to Reuters, in July the export of Iraqi oil southern deposits exceeded 3 million barrels per day.
«The Russian currency is partly under pressure from the negative statistics from China – says Kopeikin of the” BCS Express “. – The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) of China in July fell to 48.2, its lowest level in the past 15 months. ” This has had an impact on all emerging markets and their national currency, the analyst said.
On the weakening of the ruble influence of such fundamentals as the expectation of the Fed rate hike in September. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve meeting will be held. “The market is waiting for some applications will or will not increase, and lays the probability of such an increase as very high,” – said the Archangel of KIT Finance Broker. Also on Friday, July 31, a meeting of the Central Bank, which may be decided on the further reduction of interest rates in Russia, “and this additional pressure on the ruble,” adds the Archangel.
The Russian stock market on Monday opened mixed: MICEX index fell, while the RTS She showed a slight increase. However, in the RTS index also went into decline. As at 14.05 MSK the RTS index, which is calculated in the currency trading on the Moscow stock exchange at the level of 838.85 points, local minimum was fixed at 833.33 points. The MICEX index dropped to 1587.45 points from a local minimum at the level of 1578.97 points.
The leaders of the fall – shares of energy and telecommunications companies.
Securities banking and machine-building sectors also exhibit mainly negative dynamics. Growth showed shares of the metallurgical, chemical, and consumer sectors. Grown in the share price of such companies as “Severstal”, “Uralkali” and “Rosneft”.
«to overcome the mark of 60 rubles. there will most likely today – says the Archangel. – To what levels can fall, it depends on the CB. If he ceases to intervene, it will be an indication that the regulator finds that already reached the upper limit of the ruble / dollar, and it is possible that next week may strengthen the ruble after the outcome of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Russia. ”
«Most likely, the ruble has stabilized near current levels, much will depend on the outcome of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve – said Kopeikin. – A mark of 60 rubles. Dollar breaks, do not worry about it. It is expected that this will be a short-term local maximum. No serious grounds for the further weakening of the ruble is not. ”
No comments:
Post a Comment