The rapid growth of the dollar and the euro at the end of last year, in 2015, was replaced by a smooth, but make sure the strengthening of the Russian currency. This was facilitated by the Bank of Russia, sharply raised its key interest rate and offer the market a new, including foreign exchange, financial instruments, and the stabilization of oil prices at the world market level near $ 60 a barrel, and reduced public interest in the events in the south-eastern Ukraine .
Now the behavior of exchange rates in the Russian market longer determined by economic factors than political. In addition, the appetite of the Bank of Russia exchange of players affects the interest rates on many instruments.
In such conditions, the successful prediction of the behavior of course raises the income of the investor. Is it worth it to buy the currency now or you can wait, whose influence on the Russian market is stronger – the Russian Central Bank or the US Federal Reserve, where will the dollar and the euro? “Y” continues to publish views on these and other related issues of analysts of the largest banks.
Natalia Shilova, principal analyst BIN:
On Tuesday showed the worst dynamics ruble against the US dollar among the currencies of developing countries, the reason that zhe all fall in oil prices. On Wednesday, the Fed meeting, which will assess the macro entered data and can hint at a rate hike in September. Therefore, before the solutions market volatility is likely to decline. In addition, on Wednesday evening, is scheduled for release in US oil inventories, which, according to preliminary estimates should be reduced, and thereby maintain the price of black gold. On Wednesday, the likely withdrawal of the Russian currency at the outset, with the slightest increase in “hawkish” attitude at the Fed will lead to a further correction of the Russian currency has at auction on Thursday-Friday.
Dmitry Savchenko, the chief analyst of “Nordea Bank»:
ruble again on Tuesday updated the local minima against the dollar and the euro, following the dynamics of oil. Exporters have less active after the season of tax payments. Also today all currencies and commodities in developing countries are under pressure. Partly also it affects the expectation of the Fed meeting, which can be given a clear signal to raise the key rate. Also inappropriately continuing collapse in the Chinese market, which does not give risk appetite recover. However, the levels of 60-61 rubles to the dollar may become a technical barrier to the US currency, if the oil does not show the acceleration and will not go down below $ 52.
Stepan Romanov, head of operations in the money market bank “Union”:
following the movement of oil prices, the ruble rushed the mark of 60 rubles against the backdrop ./$ transfer ruble currency and dividend expectations of large payments on the foreign debt of the Russian Federation residents. Meanwhile, the Central Bank replenishes gold reserves, hastening the fall of the ruble. In srelu forward dynamics of the national currency within the 59.50 – 61.00 rubles ./$ .
Andrei Zaitsev, Deputy Director of Investment and Trade Department of Absolut Bank:
negative external environment amid falling Chinese stock indices It is forcing investors to go into “less risky” assets, which strengthens the position of the US dollar. The decline in commodity prices adds to the volatility in the foreign exchange market. As a result – increase in sovereign yield curve and a sharp weakening of the Russian ruble against the base currency. July 29 evening, the financial markets expect the Fed’s statement about the increase in credit sales rate US federal funds that will determine the further monetary policy of the country and strengthen the position of the dollar. According to the forecast of leading analysts, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will also undergo a change, and is likely to fall on Friday with 11.50% to 11.00%. Implementation of these events will have additional pressure on the ruble. On Wednesday, the national currency will keep trade corridor 59.75 – 60.75 rubles per dollar, 66.00 – 67.00 rubles per euro.
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The consensus forecast calculated as the average of analysts’ forecasts
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