Rate of the ruble to the basket Friday night against the background of declining dollar and a decline of the euro, to recoup the dynamics of forex. The American currency has almost came to a mark of 40 rubles.
The dollar settlements “tomorrow” to 18.40 MSK increased by 38 cents – up to 39.94 rubles, the euro was down 13 cents – up to 49.95 rubles, from the data of the Moscow Exchange. Currency basket ($ 0.55 and 0.45 euros) at the same time grew to 15 cents, compared with the previous close and was 44.45 rubles.
The dollar settlements “Today” on Friday rose by 31 cent – up to 39.89 rubles, the euro rose by 5 cents – up to 50.13 rubles.
The euro forex trading to 18.39 MSK stood at 1.2506 dollars against 1.2668 dollars on the previous close.
Nearly 40 per dollar
The ruble to the basket on Friday ranged predominantly below the previous day’s closing levels. The main concern of players before the weekend, when avoiding risks they prefer to leave the ruble in foreign currency, remained the same.
Negative due to media reports that in the event of an escalation of hostilities in Donetsk and Mariupol against Russia could be declared the new package of sanctions. Meanwhile, behind the airport Donetsk fierce fighting.
Weak dynamics of oil prices (oscillating around 2-year lows Brent) added a negative.
On this background, the value of the currency basket in the morning Friday confidently fixed above the intervention level of 44.4 rubles and even at the time exceeded the mark of 44.45 rubles, which could mean a shift floating frames (9-ruble) corridor of the Central Bank at least 5, or even 10 cents up.
In this case, according to experts, foreign exchange intervention regulator on Friday just exceeded the $ 350 million needed to shift the framework of the corridor by 5 kopecks.
At the same time, the expectation of the new measures of the Central Bank RF replenishment currency market liquidity deter attacks ruble “bears.” So, on Thursday, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Elvira said that after a few weeks of operation the controller will enter the currency repos for 7 and 28 days.
In the meantime, foreign currency swap operations performed by the pumping function of monetary liquidity. For example, the Bank of Russia on October 2 provided banks with currency for 473.1 million dollars (18.76 billion rubles) in the framework of these operations.
However, on the weakening euro against the dollar in the forex (up to 1, 25) and the ruble against the dollar came close to the level of 40 rubles.
Forecasts and recommendations
The ruble has suffered too serious losses this year, and while maintaining a relatively stable geopolitical situation and oil prices in the range of 90-100 dollars per barrel, the ruble may lose another 5-6% for 2015, says Vladimir Vedeneev of the Criminal Code “Raiffeisen Capital”.
So what currency assets still remain the most relevant to investment, he concluded.
Oil continues to be corrected and lost 4.5% this week to stay at 92dollara per barrel of Brent, said Vladislav Silaev of the Criminal Code “Alfa Capital”, discussing the main factors affecting the dynamics of the ruble . “However, the scale of the tragedy of the Russian economy is not as great as it may seem, since the ruble budget receives slightly less than, for example, in June this year, when oil cost $ 115, while the dollar was worth 35 rubles,” – he said.
“Now, oil production is increasing worldwide, and consumption in the same China, which is one of the main importers – falls. But the situation in the near future can be changed, and refund of the price of a barrel above $ 100 can be a very rapid “- added Silaev.
RIA Novosti
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