The ruble fell against the dollar and the Euro on increased trading volume – RIA Novosti

MOSCOW, 10 Nov — RIA Novosti/Prime, Dmitry Mayorov. the ruble against the dollar and Euro in the evening significantly decreased amid increased trading volume.

the Price of oil below $ 46 per barrel of Brent crude has not kept the ruble.

the dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 20.38 MSK increased by 1.27 ruble — to 65,16 ruble, the Euro rate — on 1.13 ruble — to 70,90 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

Party reversal

the ruble against the dollar and Euro on Thursday showed multidirectional dynamics. So, for the most part of trading, the Russian currency strengthened, reflecting expectations of a reduction of geopolitical risks on the background of the expected warming of relations between Russia and the United States with the arrival in the White house elected President of the USA of Donald trump.

as soon as Possible easing of financial sanctions and even a hint of it will be a strong driver for the strengthening of the ruble, given the fact that at the end of the year Russian companies need to repay debt of about $ 16 billion, experts say.

However, after 17: 00 Moscow time the dollar and the Euro sharply started to grow, and by the evening has added more than 1 ruble each. News background that supported such exchange rate movement was that of the CBR data on a sharp reduction in current account surplus of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in January-October — 3.67 times compared to the same period in 2015, to $ 16 billion. This happened despite the reduction of exports in the recovery of imports, explained to CBR.

However, as noted by an independent analyst Vladimir rozhankovsky, the strengthening of the ruble during this period, predictably, led to a decrease in the surplus of the balance of payments.

tonight the failure of the ruble, he was associated with the increased orders to purchase foreign currency (daily trading volume has increased and now exceeds $ 6 billion contract tomorrow with 3 billion in the pre-election period). “Maybe someone lost his nerve on the eve of the meeting between Donald trump and Barack Obama, and he decided to err, after purchasing a depreciating morning currency”, — says rozhankovsky.

In General before the advent of certain economic and political statements of the newly elected President of the United States should expect increased volatility in the markets, traders said.

the oil Market has confirmed these assumptions, having fallen down in the evening for about 1 dollar against morning levels below $ 46 per barrel.

In the end in the evening, the dollar was up 2%, and the Euro — by 1.6%. The ruble price of “black gold” has jumped around 3 thousand rubles per barrel.

Predictions and recommendations

the expectations of investors focused on high probability of stimulating fiscal policies of the new President of the United States, which creates even more potential for further tightening of interest rate policy, says Yuri Kravchenko from IK “Veles Capital”.

“this situation is going to seriously support the dollar on the Forex market and generate greater pressure on the domestic currency than a decrease of oil quotations. In these conditions in the near future the probable attempts of the pair dollar/ruble to gain a foothold above 65″, he said.

the December plans of the fed (to raise the base rate) is not precluded, it would support the dollar, says Anna Bodrova from the company “Alpari”.

“the post-election speech Donald trump in General, reassured investors. Trump as President would be to promote, apparently, the rise in the cost of loans in the country, therefore, the interest rate will begin a gradual increase”, she added.