Print the Bank of Russia estimates the potential growth rate of Russia’s GDP below 2% if the government did not implement structural changes in the economy, said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. The next three years external and internal conditions for the Russian economy will remain difficult. the Recovery may take longer in contrast to the crisis of 2008-2009, and the Central Bank expects a slight GDP growth in 2017, said Nabiullina.
According to the Central Bank, the price of oil will remain in the next three years at $ 40 a barrel, but there is a possibility of reducing the price to $ 25 per barrel (risk scenario). The Central Bank considers the low probability of the risk scenario, “but nevertheless, in our opinion, such a scenario we should always be in reserve,” said the head of the Central Bank.
When executing this scenario the decline in GDP in 2017-2018 will continue, and the achievement of the inflation target to 4% will move to 2018 “If necessary, the Central Bank will monitor the situation with financial stability. If you need intervention and increase foreign exchange refinancing, we in this scenario are ready,” – said Nabiullina.
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as far as exports from Russia, it will not grow significantly, and imports will start to recover along with the improving domestic demand.
meanwhile, wages in Russia are growing faster than labour productivity, this creates inflationary risks, said Nabiullina. In this regard, the rapid decline in Central Bank rates could lead to a resurgence of inflation. However, the Central Bank in the implementation of the baseline scenario can continue to reduce the rate in 2017.
the Central Bank expects continued Western sanctions against Russia and slower growth in the world economy. The outflow of capital from Russia will be in 2016 at least $ 20 billion, Nabiullina has concluded.
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