The Institute Gaidar predict the reduction of Russia’s GDP by 6.8% by the end of the year – NEWSru.com

II-III quarters will be by the worst this year, they will have to peak decline of the Russian economy. On this, as the RIA “Novosti” , said Director of Research Institute for Economic Policy Gaidar, Sergei Drobyshesky at the presentation of the results of monitoring of the economic situation in Russia.

During the year, analysts expect the Institute that Russia’s GDP will shrink by 6.8%. Of these, 2.3 percentage points fall on lower oil prices.

“We have assumed that the sanctions, which were introduced last year, will continue. It is deep enough this implies a fall in GDP. If we divide the effects on components, in the current situation, according to our estimates, this fall in prices oil … would give the fall in real GDP of 2-3 percentage points, “- said the expert.

He also added that if inflation expectations are slow, for example, due to demand reduction, the III-IV quarters of this year, you can see the beginning of the positive trends in a number of industries.
  
 “In this situation, the decline will be modest. Raw enterprises that export are not hydrocarbons, and metals and coal, can look forward to a very good financial and physical performance of exports. And in III-IV quarters will be really good performance and you will see the beginning of the positive trends “- said Drobyshevskiy.

According to the updated forecast in February Ministry of Economic Development, GDP in the current year will be reduced by 3% at an oil price of $ 50 per barrel and inflation of 12.2%. If in December Ministry expects inflation in 2015 to 9.4%, now has 12.2%.

Many independent experts called MED forecasts too optimistic.
  

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