Shares of “the system” is almost at the bottom, the prospects of “Bashneft” vague – RIA Novosti

Shares of "the system" is almost at the bottom, the prospects of "Bashneft" vague – RIA Novosti

MOSCOW, Sept. 29 – RIA Novosti, Dmitry Mayorov. RF IC charges against the head of the board of directors and the main owner of AFK “Sistema” Vladimir Yevtushenko, one of the wealthiest businessmen in Russia, in the case of money laundering to purchase structures “systems” of “Bashneft”, led to the collapse of quotations of securities of the holding company and its oil “daughter”.

The investigation believes that the action “Bashneft” were bought in 2009 by deliberately low price – with “discount” of $ 500 million. “System” and called the allegations against Evtushenkova, and suspicion of underreporting rates unfounded.

RIA Novosti interviewed experts believe that progress AFK level of 12 rubles is quite fair, even taking into account the risk of loss of its main asset – “Bashneft”. The very oil company may lose in value about 40%.

AFC – 03.02 lost, but panic can finish

Stocks AFK “System” on the news of the presentation Yevtushenkov charges and collapsed house arrest for a total of about 3 times – from 36 rubles to 12 rubles current, which is the minimum in mid-July 2009. In this case, the spring just 2009 AFK “System” gained control of the oil company.

Meanwhile, the current assessment AFK “System” at 12 rubles per share already fully take into account all the possible losses in the business started: the most “Bashneft”, and all received the corporation dividends, starting in 2009, says Stanislav Kleschev of “VTB 24″.

However, according to technical analysis, yet may fall to 11 rubles, where the strong level of support, but fundamentally the company has already evaluated more than adequate – the principal risks inherent in the price although the downward trend continues, and it is fraught with a margin call (when the shares are sold forced to reduce risk), he said.

Historic least on paper in the area of ​​3.41 ruble has been made in the last quarter of 2008.

However, the fair rate for shares of AFK “System” in the current environment is still in the range of 12-15 rubles, said Yevgeny Volk of Probusinessbank. “However, to catch a falling knife (increase in part on a long position in the shares to fall), I do not advise investors”, – he said.

“Psychosis can lead to an even greater loss of shares of the AFC, but will be released when all who wants to should look at the prospects for the company, “- says Volkov.

Bashneft – the main thing is not to break up

Shares” Bashneft “- the main” daughter “of” The System “- on the news on Yevtushenkov fell by about 30% – to almost 1,300 rubles (about $ 33 at current exchange rates) – a minimum of in the history of securities circulation on the Moscow stock exchange – in the autumn of 2011.

“Strong support for the stock” Bashneft “is the mark of $ 19 per share. This is an important level of support, to which, however, is still far. However, the downward trend continues and the action is likely to still be cheaper,” – said Kleschev of “VTB 24″. This takes into account the level of prices, even a possible change in ownership “Bashneft”, he added.

in the range of 700-900 rubles per share “Bashneft” is acceptable, estimates of Probusinessbank Volkov. “However, the outlook is not very rosy. When leaving the AFC” Bashneft “, is likely to lose attractive dividends. Perhaps nationalization and then privatization.’s Very important that it did not break up in the process of the case” – he concluded.