Bank predicted the Russian economy recession in 2015 – RBC

Bank predicted the Russian economy recession in 2015 – RBC

Related articles:

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has lowered the forecast for economic growth in Russia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe. The main reason – the Ukrainian crisis, according to a published report, Interfax reports.

The bank forecasts that the Russian economy moved into recession. The updated forecast of the bank is expected to fall Russia’s GDP by 0.2% in 2015. In 2014, the bank predicts zero growth. “We are revising our outlook growth (Russian GDP) in 2015 to a small decline – by 0.2%, as sanctions reach their effect, and fiscal capacity will be limited. High capacity utilization limits the long-term effects of fiscal or monetary measures, “- said in a statement.

The EBRD said that the growth of the Russian economy must be the end of a geopolitical crisis. In this case, restore confidence in the economy, even with the condition of the lifting of sanctions would be “protracted” and business relations need “will build again,” said the Bank.

Bank worsened the outlook for Ukraine. According to his estimates, the economy will fall in 2014 to 9% instead of the previously expected 7%. “There are significant risks to the outlook, caused by prolonged fighting and further destruction of the trade relations with Russia. On the other hand, a possible stabilization in the East can contribute to the restoration of infrastructure and trust (in the economy), although the timing of this is highly uncertain, “- said in a statement.

Zero growth of the Russian economy previously predicted and ex-minister Finance Alexei Kudrin. According to his estimates, because of weak inward investment that will last for 2-3 years. “We are going through a very difficult moment. Growth rates will remain very low for two or three years – Kudrin said at a business forum of the American Chamber of Commerce. – If we are in this period did not carry out the necessary reforms, low growth rates in the range of two to three per cent continue in the future ».

In late August, the forecast on the economy submitted and Economic Development. In the projections made by the Office states that the basic variant of the GDP in 2015 will grow by 1% instead of 2%, as originally planned. “We had hoped that from next year to resume a significant investment, especially the private sector. But we see now that the tougher loan conditions in foreign markets, were introduced additional sanctions, which we also did not expect, “- said the director of the Department for Macroeconomic Forecasting Economic Development Oleg deadbolt. Inflation is forecast department, had to grow by 6.5%, while the price of oil will go down in the range $ 90-95 per barrel.

Gregory Naberezhnye

September 18, 2014

RBC