Chief Economist VEB did not see the reasons for the ruble – RBC

Chief Economist VEB did not see the reasons for the ruble – RBC

Discussions about the overvalued ruble or undervalued, endless, Klepach said, this summer has left the post of Deputy Minister of Economic Development. “Indeed, after a serious decline in the ruble usually bounces back. I do not think that there are conditions for the return of rebound, because the outflow of capital has increased, “- said Klepach.

Earlier in September, Ministry of Economic Development acknowledged that the foreign policy risks and the situation around the AFK” System “can trigger acceleration of outflow capital of Russia. By the end of 2014, he may, at $ 20 billion to exceed the official target of $ 100 billion, said Deputy Alexei Vedev.

The Central Bank estimates the capital outflow this year at $ 90 billion, hoping that in the second half of his rates decrease significantly. The second half of the net capital outflow may reach $ 20 billion by the Central Bank of the assessment.

On the exchange rate pushes the price of oil, said Klepach. “If she comes back to the level of $ 100, the ruble really bounce. If it stays range from 93 to 97 dollars, I think that in the short term to strengthen it no conditions, “- said the chief economist of VEB.

In the first half of September, quotes Brent crude fell below $ 100 per barrel. Russian Urals crude is trading below the hundreds since August. “We expect prices to save Brent at 96-98 dollars, WTI – at 92-94 dollars,” – said today Nordea analyst Denis Davydov.

Worsening conditions force the authorities to look for internal sources for loans, says Klepach: “800 billion – 1.2 trillion rubles – about that resource, which we draw from foreign markets can not, must be sought in the country».

According to him, within the country, there are two major sources of borrowing – ” FNB is primarily where about 3 trillion rubles, but some of that money is already involved in different projects. Unrelated part – that’s about $ 1.3 trillion. ” Secondly, it is the Central Bank, which may make long-term lender.

«If we use about 1-1.3 trillion – it would mean that all the funds will be used NWF. In fact, we need a different approach to the same VEB, a certain task for Agricultural Bank: in these conditions, we need to change the policy to a greater extent be a development institution that covers the lack of market lending, “- said Klepach.