Related articles:
The draft federal budget for 2015 is based on the assumption that the Ukrainian crisis will be resolved and sanctions against Russia – canceled. Therefore, the government is optimistic waived the introduction of new taxes and public spending cuts. Wait for peace proposed by saving on the growth of salaries, pensions and some investrahodah.
Budget no fees
On Thursday, the government held a meeting at which finally approved the draft federal budget for the next three years and macroeconomic forecast on which this project is based. Consideration of these documents held immediately after the discussion at the meeting with President Vladimir Putin, held late Wednesday at his country residence Novo-. Details of consultations with members of the President of the Government kept secret before the meeting at the White House.
Only when the Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that the basis for budgetary calculations suggested laying “the assumption that the new sanctions regimes are introduced and existing sanctions action ends in 2015.” From the report, the Minister also indicated that the fiscal stability will largely be provided precisely by external factors. “The forecast is based on the idea of a higher rate of global economic growth, primarily due to the recovery of the American economy and maintain high growth in the Asia-Pacific region.” World economic growth, according to the minister, will have to support the price of the main export commodity – oil – at $ 100 per barrel throughout the three years.
«In Western countries, a very serious situation with the debt burden. For them, the new sanctions and minimal reduction in income can lead to a sharp drop in the economy – says Valery Mironov, chief economist at the Center for Development of the Higher School of Economics. – They are at every opportunity, as soon as the policy a little cool, these sanctions are lifted. Their use is extremely risky. And because the forecast [for the lifting of sanctions in 2015] is quite realistic ».
Taxes and expenses
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov from the discussion of the budget reported that “done without increasing the tax burden.” After consultation with the President of the Government declined yesterday to and from the consideration of the sales tax. Chief lobbyist of the tax – Moscow, Moscow region and St. Petersburg – promised an additional budget allocation: 32 billion, 45 billion and 45 billion rubles. respectively.
«I am glad that now refused to raise taxes. The imbalance between the obligations and the dynamics of income – a long-term problem, – says the head of the Centre for the Development of the Higher School of Economics, Natalia Akindinova. – But to solve it [the tax increase] is impossible, when the speaker is close to recession. It is better to rely on accumulated reserves. There are no prerequisites, that the situation has radically improved. A expenses are incorporated, it is not cost a year. To the Crimea have to allocate money on a regular basis, agriculture too ».
Universal budget cuts of 2%, which threatened the Ministry of Finance in 2015, will not be (in 2016 and 2017 as long as such a reduction is planned – the savings can amount to 306.5 billion rubles per year, indicated in the draft).
The following year, the cost will be “cut off” only on individual articles – 214 billion rubles. Save the budget will be on the growth of wages provided for the May 2012 presidential decree, and the refusal of the military pension indexation. According Siluanova, to comment on the discussion at the meeting of the government, “left dosoglasovat question about payment, non-payment of a fixed amount of the basic pension newly retiring pensioners».
The main investor – State
In the federal budget reflect that investment growth in 2015 will be maintained mainly due to government investment. Ulyukayev at a cabinet meeting said that the Ministry of Economy considered it possible to improve the investment growth expectations: “For 2015 it is primarily the state capital investments, as well as capital investment companies with state participation, such as” Gazprom “,” Transneft “,” Rosneft “and some others” . Taken into account and all approved projects that will be funded by the NWF – such as the reconstruction of BAM, and the construction of the Trans-Siberian CRR.
«Decisions to invest NWF will not go beyond 60% of the bar placement of funds” – said Siluanov. He said the fact that the financial assistance of “Rosneft” and “Novatek” in the budget is not provided: “This issue will be considered in the process of discussing the application for resources from NWF».
budgeted and crisis management reserve – 190 billion rubles, which is proposed to spend in the event of a sharp deterioration of the situation. “Plus the resources that we are now ready to provide borrowed funds from the National Welfare Fund – this will be the means that we are ready to send to support enterprises, the banking sector in the current conditions,” – said Siluanov.
Peter Netreba, Jan Milyukova
September 18, 2014
RBC
No comments:
Post a Comment