The mayor proposed to overcome the crisis through a decline in the real incomes of the population – RBC

Economic Development Ministry building in Moscow

Photo: Yekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

Office Alexei Ulyukayev has proposed to limit the population’s real income at the time of the exit of the crisis, as the main driver of investment to make corporate profits. The plan envisages an increase in the number of poor to 13,9%

Economic Development proposed a scenario out of the crisis, the main recipes which are based on reducing the income and purchasing power of the population, says “Kommersant”. The publication reviewed the revised draft of the Ministry of macroeconomic projections for the years 2016-2019, according to which the population of real disposable income should fall by 2.8% in 2016 and 0.3% in 2017.

The plan, according to according to the newspaper, is an alternative to the proposals of social bloc of the government to restart the growth of 2011-2013 model years, which was founded “to support domestic demand, rising incomes in the public sector».

MED project involves limiting wage growth in the economy 2016-2017 years with the subsequent compensation in the 2018-2019 years, the decline in real pensions by 4.8% in 2016 and by 2% in 2017 with further indexing only on inflation until 2019.

“This, according to calculations the Ministry of Economy, will increase the number of poor from 13.1% in 2015 to 13.7% at the end of 2017, with a peak in 2018 at 13.9% – and the return of the real incomes of the poor and to that of 2015 year in 2019 “, – the newspaper

it is assumed that the decline in incomes of the population will be accompanied by accelerating investment growth from 3.8% in 2017 to 7.1% in 2019 -. by this time they must reach a level of 24.1% of GDP. The main source of investment will not save people, and corporate profits, which in 2018 should grow (without devaluation effects) by 12% and in 2019 – by 10.8%, the newspaper notes

The growth of investments. It must also occur due to the state support “systemically important and effective investment projects” and will be accompanied by “outrunning growth of investments in innovative sectors of the economy.” That is, the investment will not only private but also public funds from the National Wealth Fund, says “Kommersant”. The outflow of capital in 2019, according to the forecast of the authors, is reset.

Office forecast made in the base, and conservative variants of the target, the latter based on the proposals of the Ministry of Economic White House economic policy until 2019. The main purpose of – 4.5% GDP growth in 2019. GDP growth in the years 2017-2018 on the target scenario is lower than expected -. 0.4% (previously 1%) and 2.9% (previously 3,3%)

The newspaper believes that ” target scenario, the de facto stagnation in 2015-2017′s declared inevitable: significant growth can begin only after the presidential elections in 2018 “. The base and the target version of the forecast have been rewritten after the government meeting on 21 April, if previously anticipated moderate growth in average oil prices to $ 50 by 2018, the new version is set at $ 40 per barrel

. How to write a newspaper “Vedomosti”, 25 May a meeting of the presidium of the economic Council under the President of Russia, which will discuss the sources to achieve average annual growth rate of 4% of GDP in the medium term. At the presidium should act the head of the Ministry of Economic Alexei Ulyukayev. In addition, reports are expected Stolypin club and the Center for Strategic Research, which is chaired by Alexei Kudrin.