A serious increase in demand in Russia should not expect the car market, according to the BCG report (available in “Vedomosti”). If a few years ago it predicted that by 2020 the market will reach 3.5-4 million units. per year compared with 1.5 million in 2015, and now – 1.9 million vehicles in the baseline scenario. The main reasons -. Predicted the low cost of oil, weak national currency, etc.
A similar outlook and gives PwC – 2,2 million cars in 2020, “Sollers” predicts that by this time in Russia will be sold less 2 million cars.
sales record in Russia was established in 2012. at that time, the Russians bought 2.8 million new cars. Since then, sales steadily decline. Russian car plants with total capacity of more than 3 million cars a year underutilized and incur losses. “The best strategy in the new conditions & lt; … & gt; do not wait for the market growth and to recognize that there is considerable excess capacity and to take drastic measures in order to download them or convert “-. categorical co-author of the report, a senior partner at BCG Vladislav Butenko
Made in Russia cars come yet and in the CIS countries. But their capacity is not sufficient to stabilize our auto industry: BCG on projected exports of cars will grow from 0.3 million units in 2016 to only 0.6 million units. in 2020 will not solve the problem, and government support: only to stimulate demand would have to spend 90-150 billion rubles. per year, calculated in BCG. In 2016 for this purpose the Government has allocated 50 billion rubles, in 2015 -.. 43 billion rubles
BCG believes that may be closed 3-6 plants of the existing two dozen. In the area of risk “manufacturers who do not have strategic interests in Russia, with a focus on business development in the other BRIC countries”, as well as comparatively recently launched its production, according to the report.
I have left the US Russia last year GM. At the same time in the Far East has been suspended assembly of SsangYong and rolled release Toyota Land Cruiser Prado
The probability of preservation of entire companies exist in Russia, but this is unlikely to happen in the next 1-2 years -. At the current stage, the company will conduct cautious and continue to optimize staff to reduce working days and shifts, says analyst “VTB capital” Vladimir Bespalov. Closing or preservation of certain plants can not be excluded already in 2016 – both in the car segment and in the load, thinks the chief editor of “Auto Business Review” Sergey Baranov. “A number of manufacturers, having a low level of integration with local partners and suppliers, may leave Russia – in particular after the completion of their respective agreements on industrial assembly”, – agrees to the representative of “Sollers”. He believes that the government should encourage the process of concentration of demand “around a limited number of players, focused on maximizing the value added in Russia».
Ministry of Industry does not agree with apocalyptic predictions. “We believe it more likely a gradual recovery of the markets in the short term”, – representative of the Ministry is optimistic. But he did not give a specific forecast. “Providing timely and competent support”, through their own efforts of companies, as well as by exporting, you can save all major automakers in Russia, believes the official.
It is necessary to aggressively boost exports to foreign countries, says BCG. Relatively open and growing markets are the Middle East. For example, in Iran it sold 1 million cars a year, and in Saudi Arabia – 0.6 million in Africa, is now selling low -. 0.6 million cars on the continent, but high growth potential. Some models can be supplied even in Europe. For example, Kia Rio is available there. But this model would be in demand in the UK, Italy, Spain and France, indicated in the report.
Export help load capacity and reduce dependence on local markets, agrees Bespalov. But do not expect the explosive growth of deliveries abroad, he says: the process of developing new markets – certification, adaptation, promotion, creation of sales and so on. – Very long. But to develop export is necessary in any case, underscores the Rams.
For the aggressive export promotion “there are fundamental factors, including the current foreign exchange benefits and the quality of the development of transport companies that can supply a competitive product,” said a representative of Industry and Trade.
Almost the only operating at full capacity, the plant – “Hyundai motor Manufacturing rus” has no plans to wind down, his spokesman said. But the “aggressive plans for the development of exports there»
Export -. One of the priorities in the limited demand on the local market, said a representative of “Sollers”. “But the successful export strategies can build only those who have achieved competitive costs due to location or has products, the rights to which are fixed in Russia”, – he concluded
Source: Vedomosti
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