Mikhail Kuzmin, an analyst Investkafe: I am absolutely not inclined to politicize the decision of rating agencies. The situation compared to the beginning of last year has deteriorated significantly: inflation, sanctions, weakening of the ruble, the outflow of capital, reducing the level of reserves, etc. Meanwhile, of course, neither of which preddefoltnom state can not speak in either the short or medium term: while Russia has enough reserves to meet all obligations. So maybe the solution S & amp; P is too reinsurance, but in any case Russia and investors will only have to accept it. In the case of a downgrade to speculative, of course, will begin sales of a number of foundations of Russian assets, as some borrowers have to repay loans ahead of time: all this has a negative impact on the ruble and financial stability of a number of companies.
In Currently, of course, a key factor influencing the ruble remain oil quotations, ratings change will have a negative effect only if all else being equal. That is, I expect that the impact will be in the first and second quarter due to lower ratings. However, in the case of improving the situation in the oil market and the geopolitical arena (in the situation with sanctions), these factors could have a greater impact than downgrades Russia. Accordingly, I despite the negative external situation, I believe that the ruble somewhat oversold at the current situation in the first quarter, it will be in the range of 57-67 rubles. per dollar. In the second quarter, the situation may have improved somewhat because of the situation in the commodities market and because of the improvement of the geopolitical situation. And then the ruble may trade below 60 to the dollar.
Anton Soroko analyst investment holding “Finam»: The reasons for this decision, the rating agency simple – drop in oil prices and political risks, resulting in a negative impact on the budget and capital investments. Still, this is the objective processes, which at the current time occur in the Russian economy. We believe that this news will have a moderately negative impact on today’s trading on the Russian market. Still, the news tend to have a short-term impact at the time of its publication, and in particular economic conditions such decision Fitch, in general, expected by investors. Yes, and the mass departure of investors can be said when the economy is “hot money”, which quickly react to this kind of news. Now in Russia there is practically no such investments. And so – a sequence that you outlined is correct. Probability assignment Russia “junk” rating, we considered low – ; after all, a number of indicators situation in the country is not so deplorable. Yes, and any default until no question.
The price of oil for a long time were not stable at such low levels, so that for 2015 with high probability we will see round the growth of the asset. Respectively, and the Russian ruble can start to improve, but return to the levels of early 2014 we do not expect. When positive developments the dollar against the ruble may fall in the coming months to 50-52 rubles. per dollar. On the euro can be expected levels in 61-63 rubles. per euro. With further as oil prices fall it is possible movement in the area lows in December.
Dmitry Zhuravlev, director of the Institute of Regional Problems : It seems that the first decline in investment rating is fixing their own dreams of Western elites. What actually worsened in the Russian economy? Only the external conditions, the economy itself has not changed. Yes, the road that goes to our car, gotten worse, but the car is the same.
If the correction in the currency market and will continue and most likely it will be so, it will be smooth. Central Bank of Russia has enough currency reserves to prevent collapse.
The challenges are the Russian financial market decline in international rankings add. But unlike the 90s loans are not for us vital – without them life is hard, but possible. To service existing debt means we have enough.
Russia’s exports exceed its imports, so it’s up to us far default. At any way professional activities Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of default should not be expected.
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