This year, except that the dramatic decline in oil prices and the Russian united global agenda. Otherwise, they are strictly separated: while the delegates from around the world discussed in Davos prospects of the banking system, quantitative easing in the euro zone and the strong growth in the United States, Russia is actively renewed acquaintance with the old enemy – the economic crisis.
deep and lasting?
The largest Russian businessmen and bankers in Davos from the alarmist statements tried to refrain (and some, such as, more recently, are under house arrest Vladimir Yevtushenko, generally shunned publicity), and illustrate the true scale of the problem issues shouldered First Vice Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. He was the head of the Russian delegation in Davos-2015 in the absence – for the second year in a row – the president and prime minister.
The first Shuvalov spoken in public in Davos speech showed – there should be no illusions, and they are not. Do not have time to visit a business breakfast Sberbank to drink the first cup of coffee, as they already knew about the Russian economy the most important – it is very bad.
State revenues in 2015 will be 3 trillion rubles less than budgeted. The government has prepared a plan of anti-crisis measures, which tactfully called the plan to ensure sustainable economic development and social stability.
«We must understand that Russia is in a very difficult situation. Our economic situation – not good. It can, of course, worse, may remain the same, you may have, on the contrary, as it was in 2009, when the prices of our main export commodities will rise, and the like, it would seem that the economy is all good again “- began Shuvalov.
«Recognizing that we have a difficult situation, we need to think positively, do not go to quite pessimistic forecasts do not cheat yourself, do not drive the spiral in the worst expectations. Of course, do not need to have some kind of unfounded positive horizons, but you need to understand where you are, relate to difficulties realistically, and to opportunities – positively, “- he said.
Previous chance to rebuild the economy, which has given the crisis of 2008-2009, Russia lost quickly relax after a recovery in oil prices.
«The trouble for the Russian economy is that the modernization agenda, which appeared due to the crisis in 2008 and was actively discussed in Russia in early 2009, was quickly blurred and changed with the increase in oil prices,” – Shuvalov said.
«This agenda quickly began to change, and in late 2011, many began to feel that everything is in order, the oil price has returned to its mark, and in 2012, we have believed that returned to pre-crisis levels, and thus formally crisis ended. But people who are seriously trying to sort out the problem, I understand that in fact there is no crisis, we have not experienced that all of this will be continued, “- said First Deputy Prime Minister.
«In fact, the crisis we did not come out, and then gently began to move to another, even before the events in Ukraine, because we have become dramatically lose momentum and it was clear – here it is a structural crisis, here he comes. Then came the summons sanctions, we began to experience restrictions on capital for investments. All this, of course, very unpleasant. But I reacted to this case, and this once told President – maybe it’s another chance not to be missed Russia “- Shuv alov said.
«Can we use this opportunity now to a few years these difficult reforms and hold to get out of this cycle with a stronger economic structure and not depend so much on energy prices – we’ll see, but it takes several years. After a series of decades, we will be able to assess whether Russia was able to seize it, “- he added.
The sharp fluctuations in world oil prices directly affect the lives of Russians. A collapse in prices for oil is falling ruble, growth in consumer prices and threatens the state budget deficit, revenues depend on the oil and gas sector.
In the current situation, when oil prices could well reach up to $ 25 per barrel (this is, for example, the toughest short-term scenario in the understanding of the chapter “LUKOIL” Alekperov), reflections on the need to to keep pushing for reform, even with expensive raw materials do not sound quite timely. But sooner or later the rebound is quite likely: head of BP Robert Dudley in Davos named $ 50-60 most likely his level. And then the determination can really be called into question, as it was a few years ago.
«Well, what about this Shuvalov said. We ourselves, the government itself becomes weak-willed (with a high level of export revenues – IF). It was then, when I worked in the government, “- said to” Interfax “ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said.
«It is not only members of the government are guilty of this whole vertical – the president, the prime minister,” United Russia & #8220;, which says – we will not structural measures in the pension system to take because we have promised. We do not want this trouble now lay on the population. Yes, later will be worse, but it then, and now we have promised not to do it. All move away from structural reforms. Here, for example, begins Sobyanin (healthcare reform in Moscow – IF), as best he can – and immediately receives criticism. Of course, what makes Sobyanin, you need to be coordinated with the professional community. But in general, it is good that there are people who are willing to start “, – says ex-minister.
The moral training
The problems of the Russian economy is much deeper than in late 2008 – early 2009, but the understanding of mass gravity of the situation yet, lamented Igor Shuvalov and multiple hard phrase tried to correct this defect.
«Do not be such a high income, so high oil prices, at least, we must proceed from the assumption that there will be such a high price. How to learn a new way to spend households, because they will not have such income. How will they spend money on drugs, they are used to, but now can not buy. How many will pay for services that are consumed Russian families, and now can not afford to consume ».
«Unfortunately, psychologically what we are experiencing now, is perceived not as acute as in 2008, although the complexity of what we are experiencing much greater and deeper state of bad feelings that might be, people simply not present. The government should first take care now about how to cope with these shocks, which are not seen as many shocks as all of us, down to households, to learn to live in the new conditions. To do this, we have a 2015 “- Shuvalov said.
«We must prepare for the fact that people will go to market as the unemployed, and they need to adapt to new conditions,” – he warned. In this business while behaving irresponsibly: the government is ready to give money for retraining programs redundant workers, but the company behind them for some reason, do not come.
If the crisis of 2008-2009 the corporate sector is actively engaged in the optimization of the number of staff and lamented the interference by the authorities, but now the company, on the other hand, behave too passively, without declaring the state of his plans, he said.
«We, since 2012, offers companies the means to program a new employment. We talked – if you have excessive structurally excessive labor, let us help you not just fi re them and retrain, to carry to a new place of work, we are ready to provide and organizational support, and money. You know, we did not see any activity on the part of corporations. Expectations companies layoffs were extremely low, and even at the moment they do not indicate in the Ministry of Labor that the layoffs expected to be high, “- Shuvalov said.
«But if, for example, is not just the price of the main groups of products fall, and as the 2008-2009 fall and demand for these products, it is clear that the natural response of industries will be the possible reduction of employees. And what we do not signal the moment about this – we believe that it is not responsible behavior, “- he said.
«Now there is high unemployment, there is a large number of companies, where part-time working week. But be ready if suddenly it happens – it is our responsibility, “- said the first deputy prime minister.
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Is there someone to be
More than half – 55% – of participants Davos business breakfast Savings Bank (the audience though neprezentativnaya sociologically, but elected) called the resolution of geopolitical conflict a major step towards overcoming the crisis in the economy. Igor Shuvalov German Gref to please guests could not.
«I do not think there is an opportunity for politicians to quickly resolve the Ukrainian crisis. I treat this as one who has to consider worst-case scenario, “- he said. Conclusion that follows from this assumption, not panic, but it can not be called fun: Russia will explore and exploit the economic experience of the world “pariah” 30-40 years ago – Pinochet’s Chile and South Africa under apartheid.
«We have the experience, we looked at how sanctions developed South Africa, in a complex political environment has evolved in Chile. Many such examples. It would be desirable, of course, have ve ry perfect political system and to her all the time to pull the political agenda. But is it possible to create a modern economic system with political difficulties? The answer is – you can. It’s complicated, but it can be done, “- Shuvalov said.
The EU and the US imposed the first sanctions against Russia after the Crimea. Since then, the list of undesirable persons expanded more than five times. In addition, the sanctions were certain sectors: defense, energy and banking. Russia responded with their grocery embargo.
According to Shuvalov on Russian panel only strengthened the feeling that under severe external constraints Russia will live for a long time. At least, not yet changed positions of Russia or the West in such matters, which both parties apparently feel they are absolutely fundamental.
«The biggest obstacle (for peace in Ukraine – IF) – this desire to put Russia on the place which, according to Western leaders, it should occupy,” – not too diplomatically, but very frankly Shuvalov said.
«Until then, until it is changed, there will be found no cure for this problem. Russia has its historical understanding its historical responsibility for the peace and order, at least in some part of it. If Russia will show its place so that it can not claim that her voice would be heard and to communicate with her as an equal, as long will be all sorts of such excesses, “- said the first deputy prime minister.
< P> And it really sounded gloomy his resume by Ukrainian problem.
«Now, if both the West and Russia begin to talk to each other as equal leaders on how to find a way to solve the problem, and if Russia will show the place – you sit in the corner and we will you teach your little sanctions, the this is no positive decision for Ukraine will never happen. This is going to hurt a large wound for decades ».
The head RFPI Kirill Dmitriev, as always, trying to find the positive in every situation. This is understandable: it is necessary to keep the interest of foreign investors in Russia, rather than prepare the population and business to the hard times. Although there are problems Dmitriev does not deny the Government’s determination to speak openly about their support.
«It is important to realistically assess the situation, not to give unwarranted signals, and not to create panic. We are constantly reminded that Rus sia successfully and quickly out of the crisis in 1998 and 2008 – the market then grew to 7 and 5 times, respectively, in dollar terms, “- he said,” Interfax ».
«We feel a turning point: in Europe are beginning to see that sanctions against Russia hurt European businesses. Losses in Europe in the case of a serious crisis in Russia could reach $ 300 billion. In a horizon sanctions will be eased, and oil prices should grow. When all goes down, we need to understand that sooner or later will turn exactly “, – said the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund.
We continue the conversation
In recent years Russia was engaged in Davos active positioning. Alpine resort was plastered with posters, invites you to the Russian Economic Forum, did not skimp on advertising expenses Sberbank, the company, including the state, spent a lot of events “in the margins” of Davos. At this time, the visual presence of Russia was minimal, to be exact – it simply was not there. Activities also became less, although the main “point of force” – business lunches and receptions Sberbank and “VTB Capital” – have not gone away.
However, the sanctions and the “cold war”, where Russia and the West either sink, or already plunged did not do rogue members of the Russian delegation in Davos. Firstly, in the Alps gathers the part of the elite, which is considered to be a liberal, or at least neutral, and address her claims geopolitical it would be illogical. Secondly, business is business, and no inter national conflicts do not cancel the need to make money in Russia, at least, as long as it is not prohibited by sanctions.
«Only official meetings we held somewhere in the 25-30% more than last year – this despite the fact that the composition of our delegation was less. Plus chat in the lobby, meeting at our evening at the business breakfast. We felt great interest in itself, but the number of contacts was very large, “- said to” Interfax “the head of Sberbank CIB Oleg Ganeev.
In this case, no cold from foreign partners, he did not feel.
«Absolutely not. One feels that everyone has the desire to understand how all of this situation to get out, and the desire is sincere, positive. Our communication is constantly built around four words: dialogue, trust, flexibility and compromise. Some restraint, detachment is absolutely not. If we talk about our events, then they come to all the people we invited. This is true for bilateral meetings, which was a lot, and our common activities. In general, businesslike and constructive approach, “- Oleg Ganeev satisfied.
From September to December, the ruble has lost more than half its value. After the currency panic December 16 and 17 the ruble has appreciated considerably. This was facilitated by the actions of the Central Bank, and requested the Government to exporters – to sell foreign exchange earnings.
«There was a lot of meetings with the heads of companies – European, American, – said” Interfax “a top manager of another Russian bank. – All of them are firmly in Russia, they have a huge investment, Russia for them is no longer just an option, but a serious piece of business, a significant portion of the profits. And they certainly do not support the sanctions, to go anywhere and do not intend to leave – not because of sanctions, nor because of the devaluation ».
«In general, with the corporate sector, banks have a good, dense communication. The contrast with the political level, where we are hard pressure – take Merkel speech here. There is not yet it seems that someone is looking for a compromise, rather the opposite, and it’s sad, “- says the source,” Interfax ».
«A number of short-term investors now do not want to think about Russia in general, but smart long-term inve stors look ahead and see opportunities”, – said Kirill Dmitriev from the Russian Direct Investment Fund. Great interest in Russia is expressed by China, not only public but also private entities, as well as sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East.
What to remove Russia from the global economic map has not yet been proves part of Singapore’s Changi airport operator in the tender for the purchase of Vladivostok airport, according to the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (fund goes to the competition in a consortium with Changi and “Basic Element” Oleg Deripaska).
«Project with Changi extremely important for us. This is an important indicator. If Russia was completely isolated, as President Obama said, no Changi would not come to us, “- said Dmitriev.
Old friends
An essential attribute of the Forum in Davos – conversation founder of Hermitage Capital, Bill Browder with Russian officials, mainly with Igor Shuvalov. To the extreme tightening session Russia Outlook picks on historical themes, the participants seemed to be encroached upon the well-established procedure for years: questions for the audience almost no time. However, the moderator at the last moment still gave Browder ten seconds to the question.
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