The central bank was finally convinced that inflation will soon begin to decline, and the second time gently eased credit reins, stretched to the limit in December. The Board of Directors of the Central Bank lowered its key interest rate from 15 to 14 percent per annum.
At this time, the decision of the Central Bank was to be expected, although experts “RG” inclined to believe that you need to lower the rate to 13 percent immediately. But, probably, on Friday, the 13th, it could apply the wrong signal.
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Annual the growth rate of prices stop rising in the summer (the total for the year – from 12 to 14 percent), and for the next 12 months (March 2015 to March 2016) was 9 percent. The head of the Central Bank Nabiullina told a news conference after a meeting of the Board of Directors. Now the main risk, according to the Central Bank, is not linked to inflation, and with the beginning of falling production – at the end of 2015 GDP contraction of 3.5-4 percent.
The decision of the Central Bank shall make the loan more affordable and help the economy return to growth. But the “interest rates on loans for a large part of the business will remain restrictive,” Nabiullina acknowledged in answer to the question “RG”. Deposit rates also decreased, but still be high enough to stimulate the activity of the savings of the population.
On the ruble exchange on the decision of the Central Bank responded positively. Assessment Elvira Nabiullina, fundamentally grounded ruble by 10 per cent above the current. So the dollar may weaken to 55 rubles.
“Bottom” of economic recession, according to the updated forecast of the Central Bank, will be in the first quarter of next year. Then decline replaced growth. In 2017 it could exceed 6 percent. Household spending on final consumption decreased by 5.5 percent, which is comparable with the crisis year of 2009. Underlying assumptions and parameters of the new Central Bank forecast close to the forecast of Ministry of Economic Development, Elvira explained, when asked “RG”. It comes from the preservation of sanctions and 2015-2017 years of low oil prices (50-55 dollars per barrel mark Urals).
The key rate may be changed again on April 30.
opinion expert “RG”
Alexander Abramov, a professor of the Department of Finance NRU “Higher School of Economics”:
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– Interest rates on bank deposits will fall under the influence of the key rate, but smoothly, there is no automatic dependence.
Banks now especially need the money of the population, as they cut off from the western capital markets. To a lesser extent lower rates affect banks an average hand that money to the population more important than the big players. But, unfortunately, the year-end inflation rate will exceed the yield on bank deposits.
The most important risk reducing the key rate was the exchange rate, because the high interest rate held by the Bank with currency speculation. However, in the coming months to reduce the risks of the ruble insignificant.
The speculation with currency fluctuations are possible when the price of oil, but in the past two months, it became obvious that the prices of raw materials vary in a more or less stable corridor and the failure of up to 30 -40 dollars per barrel is unlikely. In this case, the Central Bank has found a way to provide banks and their clients currency without undermining the stability of the ruble. Through currency Repo Bank gives banking system sverhlgotnyh conditions much currency as it must, therefore, the foreign exchange market has no hype.
In terms of exchange rate stability it works, though achieved by gold reserves. Simultaneously, the Central Bank is almost twice reduced the volume of the ruble refinancing. Accordingly, banks have fewer rubles, which they could use for currency speculation. Plus a social contract with the Central Bank by banks and exporters: need money – give, but do not erode the course.
As for inflation, the key rate it now affects not much, it is determined by the effects of devaluation of the ruble and sanctions. However, these factors will be mainly exhausted after several months. Therefore, it is logical to decrease rates by another one percent at the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank. Moreover, I think that now had a chance to reduce the rate by 2 percent without affecting the rate of the ruble and inflation.
When the key rate will be 13 percent, the cost of commercial loans will come to an acceptable level. Industry and the public need to give a little oxygen, but in doses that do not affect the exchange rate, and the risks associated with it again now under control.
Below 13 percent rate in the coming months is unlikely to fall. Ahead of the summer, and with it new risks – increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System of the USA, which will trigger increased capital outflows, plus a busy schedule of repayment of external debt companies and banks.
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