The Bank of Russia has prepared a new macroeconomic forecast for 2015-2017 years – RBC

The Bank of Russia has prepared a new macroeconomic forecast for 2015-2017 years – RBC

The Chairman of the Bank of Russia Nabiullina

Photo: TASS

According to Nabiullina, gold reserves this year will be reduced by $ 50 billion. “This will include including our operations to provide currency on a returnable basis. We provide the currency through banks to smooth peak payments on foreign debts, to avoid unnecessary volatility in the foreign exchange market “, – explained the head of the Bank of Russia. As a currency refinancing Bank provided banks with $ 20 billion.

The average price of Urals oil this year will be $ 50-55 per barrel. “There is reason to expect that by 2017 the price will rise to $ 70-75 per barrel, but it remains significantly lower than last year,” – said Elvira.

«The main factor affecting the exchange rate, oil prices will remain, but the unidirectional decrease on the scale that had been in the past year, it is unrealistic, “- said Nabiullina. According to the Bank of Russia, the ruble is now undervalued by about 10%.

The Bank of Russia in his prediction comes from the fact that until the end of 2017 foreign capital markets remain partially closed to Russian companies, which is why GDP 2015 will be reduced by 3.5-4%, in 2016 – by 1-1,6%.

The low economic activity will start to affect the dynamics of inflation in the second half of 2015, follows from the forecast. At this time, will be largely exhausted the impact of temporary factors – the weakening of the ruble and the restriction of foreign trade – which led to the current rise in prices, explained Elvira.

The economy will bottom out in the first quarter of 2016, said Elvira. “After that, the economy, adapt to new conditions, will increase. In 2017, the expected rapid recovery rates that can exceed 6%, “- she said.

Bank expects to reduce imports by nearly 30% in 2015. For comparison, in the previous forecast, published in December, the regulator predicted a 10 percent reduction in imports.

Borrowers to repay this year by about $ 120 billion, taking into account the potential refinancing – $ 65 billion. This is twice less than last year.

«If events develop according to our expectations, we will continue to decrease in the key rate,” – added Elvira.