Russia’s GDP in 2015 will decrease by 6.8%, inflation will be 17.1%, investment in fixed assets will fall by 19%, real disposable income decreased by 8.5%, experts predict Gaidar Institute and RANHiGS in the report ” trends and challenges of social and economic development. ” Forecast can be considered a crisis, despite the fact that the economy is showing signs rather, not crisis and depression, they note.
In the estimates already taken into account the expected effects on the performance of anti-crisis measures of the government, said RBC Director for Research Gaidar Institute Sergey Drobyshevskiy. For example, the budget sequestration and support large enterprises and banks. According to his calculations, without anti-crisis measures the economy’s decline could be deeper than 1-1.5 percentage points, reaching 8%.
Reduced investment in the last year, reducing the income and purchasing power of the population in the fourth quarter of 2014 and January of 2015, a reduction of the resource base and the losses of the banking sector, the continuing fall in the investment sector, the manufacturing industry and the decline in mechanical engineering as a whole – the inevitable signs of further deterioration, economists say.
The federal budget revenues in January decreased – said the decline in revenues from mineral extraction tax and foreign trade. There is a tendency to lower revenues from income tax and excise taxes. Because of spending on defense and social policy spending has increased as a result of the cash execution of expenditures in January was 21.7% of the annual plan compared to 5.5% in January 2014.
The reduction of the tax base – argument benefit of sequestering 10% of planned spending, the report said. If it does not reduce defense spending, the fiscal imbalance will skyrocket, which would prevent the economic recovery, the authors point out.
In the regions of the deteriorating economic situation manifested in the decline in investment income and at the end of 2014. However, production and employment in most regions remain stable – better feels the Russian south, worse – eastern regions, the Urals and the North-West, economists estimate.
According to their observations, lower incomes compresses the demand for market services that will result in the reduction of employment. Due to the deterioration of the situation in the regional budgets and reduce the scope of the federal budget budget sector ceases to be a “safe haven”, as it was in 2008-2009, the crisis, the report concludes.
To reduce costs in 2015 have all regions, says Vice Rector Russian Academy of Foreign Trade Paul Kadochnikov. According to him, and for the region and for the whole economy the worst this year will be the second and third quarters – they have to rush recession. Oil prices will fall further during the year to a level of $ 50 / bbl., Admits Kadochnikov.
EPI estimates were pessimistic official forecasts of economic departments.
February 11 Ministry of Economic Development published a macroeconomic forecast, predicting GDP contraction in 2015 to 3%, inflation of 12.2%, falling investment by 13.3%. If the government does not implement the anti-crisis plan, the decline may be more profound, mentioned in the text. In the previous version of the forecast of Economic Development, presented in early December, is expected to decline in GDP at 0,8%.
The Ministry of Finance expects at the end of 2015 inflation at no more than 12.2%, it said in a Tuesday project amendments to the budget. In the last edition of this year’s budget department estimated the inflation rate of 5.5%. According to the Central Bank, inflation in Russia will return to 10% only at the beginning of 2016. According to Rosstat, February 24, the cumulative inflation in annual terms amounted to 16,2%.
According to the forecast of the World Bank, the Russian economy in 2015 will decline by 2.9%, according to the international rating agency Fitch – to 4%, according to experts of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Russia’s GDP will fall by 4.8%, according to the agency Moody’s – by 5.5%.
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