The collapse of the oil market
The main energy event of the year, of course, was the collapse of the oil market. Falling commodity quotations started after increasing production of “black gold” OPEC (in September, oil production in the OPEC countries reached its highest level in the last year – 402 barrels per day). Over the past year, many countries with substantial reserves of “black gold”, have decided to increase the volume of exports of this energy. This is typical of the United States, where relatively recently been approved for the export of crude oil, also entered the market a number of Middle Eastern countries. In addition, the market went Libyan and Iraqi oil.
Last but not least role in reducing the cost of oil played a generous discount on the raw material provided by the largest player in the oil market of Saudi Arabia, Asian countries (followed by lower prices for Asian consumers declared Iraq and Kuwait).
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During the six months barrel of “black gold” fell by 30% – from 115 to 80 dollars. The largest exporters of hydrocarbons, Iran, Venezuela and Libya have begun to sound the alarm and to insist on reducing oil production by OPEC members.
However, the hopes of states whose budgets are typeset with the price of oil over $ 100 a barrel, did not come true – OPEC refused to reduce the volume of production in order to stabilize oil prices. Following that decision, the cheapening of “black gold” will continue with renewed vigor, reaching lows of the crisis in 2009. In December, the price of a barrel broke through $ 60.
A UAE oil minister Suhail al-Mazrui announced that OPEC will not reduce production quotas of raw materials, even if oil prices fall in price to $ 40 per barrel.
Russia as an exporter of oil is highly dependent on raw material costs – low energy prices lead to lower tax revenues, as a result, our country will not receive a significant portion of the profits. According to the Accounting Chamber in 2015, losing the Russian budget will amount to 331 billion rubles. The Ministry of Finance the amount of damage is estimated at $ 1 trillion rubles.
The end of the “South Stream»
Primarily, at least for Russia and Europe, “gas” event of the year became Moscow’s refusal to build a gas pipeline “South Stream”. After the commissioning of the pipeline capacity of 63 billion cubic meters had to nullify the role of Ukraine as a country supplying gas to Europe. Seemingly bitter experience of partnership with the Ukrainian transit Europeans were to advocate the early launch of the “South Stream”, but that the EU has started to torpedo the project pipeline. First announced the suspension of the project Bulgaria (initial onshore section of “South Stream” was planned on the territory of Bulgaria – Ed.). It is worth noting that the decision to freeze work on the pipeline has coincided with the arrival in Sofia American politicians. However, soon the Bulgarian authorities have realized the folly of his action and tried to give the “South Stream” status fishing tube, but Brussels has stood firm on his – the green light to the pipeline will only after it will comply with European legislation.
The claims of the European Union to the “South Stream” boiled down to the fact that he did not meet the standards of the Third Energy Package (TEP), according to which one and the same company can not simultaneously carry out the transportation of gas and supplied fuel. Moreover, in Brussels insist that Russia made to third-party pipeline exporters. In other words, to build a “South Stream” should “Gazprom”, and they will use other suppliers, such as Azerbaijan.
According to experts, the torpedoing of the “South Stream” is purely political in nature – European politicians have repeatedly expressed concerns about the disruption of gas supplies through Ukraine, but chose to support Brussels, Kiev, putting at stake the energy security of Europe.
It should be noted that the ratio to the “South Stream” is ambiguous in the European Union: countries that are heavily dependent on the Ukrainian transit (Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria), support the speedy construction of the pipeline. At the same time, Germany or France could well afford to insist on blocking the project – energy of these states is not in danger, because the Russian fuel they get through the “Nord Stream».
However, in the opinion of Serbia and Hungary who wanted to receive Russian fuel to bypass Ukraine, one in Brussels did not listen, and because no progress in the life of the pipeli ne from the European Union was not observed in Russia think about the feasibility of the project. “If there is a demand of European consumers to reduce the risks, we will build” South Stream “. If this demand is not, then we will not build it. But in this case the risk of breach of warranty deliveries should take the one who refuses to these opportunities, “- said in late November Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev .
And on December 1 announced the closure of the project Russian President Vladimir Putin . “Taking into account the position of the European Commission, taking into account the fact that we did not get permission from Bulgaria, we believe that Russia does not have the ability to develop this project. We will be forced to reconsider their participation in this project. & Lt; … & gt; Start a project now that is approved by Bulgaria, you know, ridiculous, “- said the head of state.
However, to leave the European Union alone with risky Ukrainian transit is not going to Moscow – Russian Federation plans to build additional gas hub in Turkey (on the border with Greece), from which the fuel will meet the needs of the Southern European countries.
Gas war with Ukraine
In 2014, after a brief lull, resumed the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine. Prior to the coup in Ukraine Moscow has granted Kiev discount on almost tridtsatiprotsentnuyu “blue fuel”. The cost of gas dropped from 400 dollars to 268.5 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Condition discount – in good faith payment of gas. And I must say, the last Ukrainian authorities to meet these requirements – “Naftogaz” managed to transfer to “Gazprom” $ 1.28 billion for the portion of the fuel purchased in 2013, and $ 191 million for delivery in 2014. However, after the change of power Kiev in no hurry to pay the bills and debts amassed impressive. April 1, Russia abolished the discount, and denounced the Kharkiv agreements. Thus, the cost of gas for Ukraine has risen to $ 485 per thousand cubic meters.
Ukrainian politicians flatly refused to pay for fuel at the new price, every day pushi ng Russia new conditions and demanding the return of the old value of the dollar to 268.5.
Massive debt “Naftogaz” forced “Gazprom” Ukraine translate to prepayment system – “money in the morning, in the evening the gas.” From June through the Ukrainian gas transport system was implemented only transit fuel destined for European consumers.
The new revolution in the gas dispute between Moscow and Kiev threatened the transit of Russian gas to Europe, which is simply freeze, if the RF block the valve. Therefore, European politicians strongly encourage the search for a compromise between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Progress was made in October. Kiev agreed to repay debt and to pay 385 dollars per thousand cubic meters of gas in winter. It is worth noting that Moscow several times offered “Naftogaz” the price, but Ukrainian colleagues flatly refused.
In December, “Gazprom” confirmed receipt of Kiev 378 million dollars as payment for the fuel. This meant that Ukraine can begin the selection of Russian gas.
The experts are in no hurry to put an end to the gas conflict between Moscow and Kiev, as the agreement reached is temporary, and again in the spring of Ukraine will sit at the negotiating table. “At the end of the winter season when the urgent need for a” blue fuel “goes down, Kiev again raise the issue of price and time consuming hand will return to discuss the terms of supply and transit of Russian gas,” – says member of an independent center of expertise “public thinks” Anton Sonich.
Energy collapse of Ukraine
The gas shortage – not only the energy problem, which has become the Ukrainian authorities this year. Kiev faced a severe shortage of electricity due to the shortage of coal. Traditionally, about 50% of electricity production in Ukraine was provided at the expense of its own coal, but this year the situation has changed – the largest mine Square located in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, access to which Kiev lost because of the conflict in the Donbas. Things reached the point that a number of power plants coal reserves had only four days of work.
In order to solve the problem of shortage of fuel, Ukraine had to turn to Russia, although earlier this is not out of the question – Kiev did one by one application to reduce dependence on Russian fuel. Ukrainians even tried to buy coal from South Africa. However, with the African fuel in Square did not grow together – Ukraine managed to get only the first batch of coal, then the transparency of the transaction and interested PGO opened a case on the basis of suspicion of embezzlement of state property. Became involved in the case Energy Minister Yuriy Prodan , which was later dismissed. Under the agreement, monthly Kiev was supposed to receive 250 thousand tons of coal from Africa and costs $ 86 per ton. However, taking into account the logistics real cost of coal is 110-120 dollars per ton. After verification of the coal transaction Prosecutor General of Ukraine British trader Steel Mont Kiev refused to sell South African coal.
As for thermal power plants using coal certain varieties, not all fuel for Ukraine, so much choice, where to get the right fuel at reasonable prices, Kiev has not been – or Russian, or Donbass. The leaders of the self-proclaimed republics to sell coal to the Ukrainian authorities refused, so the Square have no choice, how to import raw materials from the Russian Federation.
Buying gas and coal – that’s not all energy resources, which Ukraine was going to buy from Russia. In the words new Energy Minister Vladimir Demchushin , Kiev intends to receive Russian electricity. At this step the government had to go in order to avoid rolling blackouts.
Ukrainian authorities agreed to import electricity from Russia, but kept silent, how will pay for it, and after the purchase of electricity would cost three times as much gas because electricity – it is a finished product, and gas – just raw materials.
Historic contract with China
Since the beginning of the escalation of the conflict with Russia, European politicians have repeatedly announced plans to reduce dependence on Russian energy. In Brussels to seek alternative suppliers, it had hoped for liquefied natural gas from the US and other exporters of LNG, then come up with ways of energy saving. But no matter how desirable the European Union, “Gazprom” still holds a leading position in the market of the Old World – in the past year, the Russian gas monopoly, the EU has put a record 161.5 billion cubic meters of gas.
However, since in Europe want to be less dependent on Russian gas, the Russian Federation and should take a course to reduce dependence on the European market, experts say. Make it possible thanks to increased exports to the Asia-Pacific region. The first step in turning to the East was made in May, when “Gazprom” and the China National Petroleum Corporation signed a historic agreement to supply 38 billion cubic meters of gas a year from Russia to China. It is noteworthy that the conditions for the parties could not reach an agreement 10 years.
«Great start, but do not forget that China’s demand for gas is about 800 billion cubic meters a year, so we have much to develop. Make it possible to start up if the gas transportation system Russian independent producers from the Far East and Eastern Siberia, in parallel reducing the export duty from 30% to 20% or even 10%, “- said head of the analytical department of FC AForex Artem Deev .
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