One of the main news of the outgoing year, especially sensitive for Russia, was the fall in oil prices. Recall that during the period from the beginning of 2011 to June 2014, Brent average cost over $ 110 per barrel, allowing exporting countries of black gold to minimize the effort to “make money”. Budget revenues flowed freely, and, unfortunately, no one thought that comes “tomorrow”, in fact, no one knows when will it “tomorrow”, but hoped that, certainly not in the near future.
It is obvious that such a drop in oil prices in Russia were not ready, and it was evident by the statements of ministers, experts and even the president, noting that “the world economy will collapse, at a price below $ 80 per barrel” . Now we have to adapt to the new reality of relatively cheap by the standards of the previous 5 years, the price of oil. Recall that even December 1, 2014, oil was $ 73.36, dropping every day lower and lower. It would seem that having fallen to $ 60 a barrel by December 15, the “black gold” in place on this plateau and go down (so much as that is possible). Indeed, nearly two weeks the oil kept in the hallway $ 59-62, which gives us hope that, at least, the oil will not go down.
Unfortunately, Russian, Iranian, Venezuelan and some other economies , New Year’s miracle did not happen, but rather it turned nasty: December 26, returned to the fall of oil prices, and today (January 2, 2014) is already worth $ 57,37.
On the question of where the bottom of the oil price , there are no answers, or rather their so much that the only logical conclusion is the recognition of the “uncertainty” of the bottom. If you look on indirect indicators, then, for example, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in late December, developed a stress scenario for the economy at a price of $ 50 per barrel. Although, according to him, the Central Bank itself – it just to have an idea. Forecast to call it impossible. Some experts in the United States talking about oil at $ 40 in 2015, although such views are far from mainstream. Basically, the responsible expert community, trying not to make definitive predictions, because it will be very ashamed when they fail miserably (suddenly not guess!?).
We’re with you just have better buckle up and be ready for any alignment. Far more interesting all the same question of who is to blame for this collapse of oil prices. By the way, today’s oil price is exactly half the cost of oil June 16, 2014, after which began the terrible fall.
The number of conspiracy theories on the subject of change in price not black gold is growing exponentially. Explanations have not any taste. Most often, explanation is the assumption that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to a significant reduction in the cost of a barrel, to how to punish Russia. While for example, in Iran, saying the same thing, but instead of Russia and Iran worth (w s the Muslim world). In Venezuela, of course, too, no doubt, what is happening today on the roar of hydrocarbons processes is nothing but a conspiracy, “the Washington Regional Committee».
Added the heat of the fire energy minister of Saudi Arabia, Ali al-Naimi: “The strategy of Saudi Arabia – it is also an attempt to protect highly-producing countries, and not only its place in the market. We want to tell the world that only high-producing countries deserve market share. This operating principle is adhered to by all the capitalist countries ».
Earlier, the minister said that Saudi Arabia is still how low will the price of oil,” it will fall to $ 20, $ 40, $ 60 – without us difference. ” He also noted that, unlike the Saudis, Russia can not but suffer from lower prices because It produces oil inefficient and could not stop the download, even if I wanted to. Indeed, if Russia cut oil injection, it would help to raise the price, but we can not afford it in the first place because another source of budget revenues so significant we have to do, and secondly, as indicated by Al Naimi, due to the fact that the Russian fields and technologies “not as good as the Saudi».
Al-Naimi, commenting on the difficulty of the Russian economy has hinted that Russia is not doing its economy and low oil prices because blithely behaved in recent years, suffers from inefficient and therefore “does not deserve a place” in the market.
With Al-Naimi oddly enough we can agree on all positions except one, “earn” a place on market impossible. The market still operates under its own laws and can not be subordinate to his will of one or a group of states. That is, determines whether Russia deserves a place on the market or separately OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and a whole range of factors that add up to what is called competitive. Wins and has more influence most effective players. We already history has taught that the only hope for the high price of oil – it is useless and extremely dangerous. Therefore, the current situation should be seen as a “magic Pendel”, which should stimulate us to take two strategic decisions. Firstly, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of production by reducing production costs through the use of new techniques and high-tech equipment. Parallel need to increase the share of exports vysokoperebotannyh products rather than raw materials. Secondly, the current crisis is transparent hints that it is high time to find a new economic model that is independent of galloping prices for raw materials. Live as before no longer work, so the new year has the potential to be a year of real change.
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Source news, taken from ruspravda.info
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