The fall in oil prices since the beginning of the new year not only did not stop, but continue. Already this month a barrel could become cheaper by a third, to $ 40 experts give different predictions, but all agree on one thing – to recover the “black gold” will begin no earlier than the second half of 2015. First of all, the fall of oil prices affect Russia’s budget, which may fall short of almost 2.5 trillion rubles.
The past 2014 was a year of entering into a new crisis, which in Russia is still complicated and sanctions from the West, and the sharp depreciation of the national currency against the dollar and the euro. It all began traditionally – with oil prices.
From the middle of the summer of 2014. Futures on brand Brent (tied it to her the price of Russian Urals) began to decline sequentially and the end of December fell from $ 115 to $ 60 per barrel. And the psychological mark of $ 60 a few times was broken, but every time quotes adjusted upwards.
For comparison, in December 1998 crisis, oil prices fell to $ 9.1 per barrel (in the beginning of the year was $ 17 -18), but since the beginning of 1999 began to grow, and by June exceeded $ 15. In the next year the global crisis, 2008 has oil in December was worth just over $ 33 per barrel, collapses with the July record high of $ 147. Stable growth began only in the second half of 2009, which resulted in a barrel overcame the level of $ 60.
Initially drop of oil in 2014 attributed to many factors: this increase in production in Iraq, and the market’s expectations in connection with the removal of sanctions against Iran, and a slowing economy, and, consequently, fuel consumption in Europe and China. But mostly became imbalance of supply and demand – the volume of steel production significantly exceed the demand for hydrocarbons.
The flames were fanned Organization countries – Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which, at its meeting in late November refused to cut production. Cartel provides about 40% of world production of “black gold”, producing about 30 million barrels per day. However, the Gulf countries (notably Saudi Arabia) formed a united front against the reduction of production. Controlling OPEC six votes out of twelve, they were able to lobby decision to maintain quotas at the same level (the same 30 million barrels). The organization later claimed that world oil prices really understated, but the market should regulate itself.
According to one version, Saudi Arabia purposefully reduce prices in order to prevent a large-scale in the global market of shale oil from the United States ( at low prices, many projects simply become unprofitable). On the other – Riyadh acting in alliance with Washington, and the reduction of quotations directed primarily against Russia.
By the way, in late December the Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi in an interview with Middle East Economic Survey said that oil can never rise to the level of $ 100 per barrel.
And, according to al-Nuaimi, not in the interest of OPEC to reduce production costs even at $ 20 a barrel. “If Saudi Arabia will lower production, prices will go up, and Russian, Brazilian and shale developers in the United States will take away our market share,” – said the minister.
Al-Nuaimi said that the budgets of the Persian Gulf able to withstand a long period of declining prices, as the cost of production in the region of $ 4-5 per barrel. But offshore projects in Brazil, West Africa and the Arctic, according to al-Nuaimi, will suffer. “We want to tell the world that only countries with high efficiency production deserve market share,” – he concluded.
However, on December 25 ex-advisor to the Minister of Finance of Saudi Arabia John Sfakianakis said in its budget for 2015 Year Riyadh laid price of $ 80 per barrel. According to him, it was included in the budget, based on the recovery of the market. But even at this price the Kingdom of the budget will remain in deficit. A gap of $ 38.6 billion (revenues are projected at $ 190.7 billion, expenditures – $ 229.3 billion). This deficit can be covered from the reserve fund of the Central Bank of Saudi Arabia, which has collected $ 241.1 billion.
The largest Russian company did not disclose what the price of oil lay in the budget for next year. However, “Rosneft”, for example, previously reported that its plan of financial and economic activity for the years 2015-2016 formed “a conservative macroeconomic scenario conditions.” The company intends to continue the implementation of its projects (including the Arctic) and increase production. The head of “Gazprom oil” Dyukov December 26 said that, according to forecasts of the company, the price of oil in January could be around $ 60.
«Every company has a number of scenarios development – says a source in one of the leading Russian companies in the industry. – So they are prepared to almost any price ».
« It should be noted that, as in the current situation behave private companies – says a board member of the National Association of Technology and price audit Boris Yaryshev . – To date, only “LUKoil” said a reduction of 10% of the investment, and it’s probably related investments in exploration and some optimization. ” According to Yaryshev, the “Rosneft”, “Gazprom Neft” and “Gazprom” can also be used to optimize costs at the level of individual projects. However, the comparatively favorable location of Russian companies on the cost curve gives them a certain margin of safety, and show that took place in late December in “Gazprom” and “Gazprom Neft ‘boards of directors. Approved investment for 2015 as a whole were bigger than in 2014.
«Therefore global changes in the investment ukaznoy three companies we do not expect”, – says Yaryshev.
The decline in oil prices could have a negative impact on the Russian budget, as revenues from the oil segment provides more than 30% of budget revenues.
«Earlier in the formation of the budget benchmark price of a barrel was $ 80, – says Alexander Suslin of the Economic Expert Group. – Now, this scenario is considered extremely optimistic and considers scenarios in $ 60 and $ 40. And here the main question: what will happen to the ruble? “The fact is that Russian oil companies enter into contracts and are paid in dollars, and report and pay taxes in rubles. Thus, even the lowest prices for hydrocarbons in low-yield oil companies ruble revenue growth.
According to Suslin, if the dollar and barrel “will meet on 60″, the recession will be 4.4% of GDP, and the budget shortfall – 1.8 trillion rubles. (We are talking about the budget in 2015, 2016 and 2017, which was previously set at 15 trillion rubles.).
«But if steps are taken to strengthen the ruble (eg large companies will be obliged to sell their foreign exchange earnings, as was recently reported, the Ministry of Finance or throw on a stock exchange their foreign exchange reserves) and the dollar exchange rate will be about 50 rubles., shortage of the budget will reach 2.3 trillion rubles. “- warns Suslin.
The head of the analytical company Small Letters Vitaly Kryukov said that the world oil market must find a point of balance between supply and demand, and this takes time. “The main reason for the fall in prices is a significant global prevalence of supply over demand – says the expert. – The Middle East reduce production are not going, and the United States to reduce production at once can not ».
According to the forecasts Kryukov, the first half of 2015 will be difficult because of the inhibition of growth of demand and excess supply. The price of a barrel will balance near the mark of $ 60. “But in the second half of the year could increase to about $ 70,” – said the expert.
Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, by the way, on December 25 in an interview, “Russia-24″, said that the price balance in the oil market will be achieved at the price of $ 80 per barrel. According to him, “low oil prices will keep for several months, and may even decrease,” but then stabilize at around $ 80.
But the forecast vice president of international agency Argus Vyacheslav Mishchenko less optimistic . According to him, in the first half of 2015 is realistic scenario in which the barrel fell to $ 40. This is explained primarily by the same overproduction of oil.
«Today, supply exceeds demand by about 1, 8 million barrels per day, that is, six months excess oil will be more than 300 million barrels – says Mishchenko. – Given that the OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia to cut production is not going as well as the slowdown of the Chinese economy and poor economic performance in Europe, it will put pressure on the stock ».
By the way, according to “Gazety.Ru”, the Russian Finance Ministry is preparing for next year stress scenarios taking into account the prices of both $ 60 and $ 40 per barrel. And the price of $ 40, according to sources “Gazety.Ru” in the ministry, we can see in January.
But then the cheap oil will push demand (in the US, for example, at the end of December were recorded the lowest prices for gasoline, which is caused by the cheap oil). In addition, the market will have to leave the company with a very costly and inefficient production. According to Mishchenko, it is primarily a Canadian producers (they are already experiencing significant difficulties, since production scavenger oil in Canada is cost-effective only for $ 80 per barrel), part of US companies engaged in the production of shale, and a number of producers in Africa. Russia has cut production is not going to.
The growth in demand and production cuts will lead to that by the third quarter of 2015, according to the forecast Mishchenko, the price of a barrel rises to $ 60-65, and by the end of the year will come close to $ 70. However, it should be noted that these projections are guided by fundamental market factors such as supply and demand . Geopolitical factors are not taken into account, and if, for example, to aggravate the situation in the Middle East, it could further push oil prices up.
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