For those who are engaged in a great economy, and for those who daily compares the price tags on the shelves, was the first issue after the winter vacation was: “What’s the oil?” It seemed that even discussing stock news on the benches at the entrances. And this bunch of world oil prices and the exchange rate of the ruble in the new year brought new surprises.
For those who are engaged in a great economy, and for those who daily compares the price tags on the shelves, was the first issue after the winter break was: “What’s the oil?” It seemed that even discussing stock news on the benches at the entrances. And this bunch of world oil prices and the exchange rate of the ruble in the new year brought new surprises.
Oil depreciated record in the global market, and futures for February already concluded at $ 47 per barrel for a long time this was not. And it is clear that suffers most oil-producing economies. Experts agree that the OPEC cartel as flexing its muscles, beating the market players, producing expensive shale oil, due to which, and upset the balance of the world market.
In Russia, talk about reducing the expenditure side of the budget. The authorities claim – all will pass, hold out, and consider losses. According to the Minister of Finance, with an average oil price of $ 50 per barrel during the year the budget revenues will be reduced by three trillion rubles.
A small field in California. About a dozen wells. At first glance, everything is the same: oil pump and sent for recycling. But the owners of the company have already announced – to the depletion of deposits remained a matter of months. Drilling new wells no money. To understand why, it is enough to call the nearest gas station. Over the past six months, prices here have fallen by almost half. On the former oil industry profits were only memories. All income is spent on loans.
In Texas, the other day one of the companies have already filed for bankruptcy. Prices of American variety WTI fell below 43 dollars. The debts to pay nothing. For the oil industry in the US is still too small events, but experts say – is still to come.
“We could not assume that they fall below sixty dollars. The level of forty dollars – this is a big problem. Literally Yesterday the major oil companies have announced declines in output and nine thousand jobs, “- said economist at Texas Alliance energy producers Karr Ingham.
The American oil companies are not exaggerating. A similar opinion is shared by analysts of the International Monetary Fund. A report published by them about a month ago, clearly shows that from a half dozen major US companies engaged in the extraction of shale oil, the current price level will stand on the strength of just two. The others, if in the coming months will not change anything, just collapse. And it will mean the end of the famous shale revolution.
“For quite rough data of the banking community of the United States, the total amount of debts oil shale industry is $ 500 billion in round figures. In fact, it may be a crisis of such magnitude that we have seen in the United States in 2008, when there was a crisis of mortgage lending. There amounts of money were the same, “says a leading expert of the Union of Russian Oil and Gas Rustam Tankan.
However, in other parts of the world oil companies gradually scale down their activities. Thus, the giant Norwegian “Statoil” during the week immediately refused by three licenses for the development of hard deposits. In Venezuela, stopped work on the largest and most prosperous in the country field in the Orinoco valley. But oil – virtually the only source of income for this Latin American country. The situation is so critical that President Nicolas Maduro dropped everything and went around the world. On Thursday, he met with Vladimir Putin. From the first words of greeting, it became clear what the leaders will say.
“Before we discuss issues in the global energy sector, I would like to note that Venezuela is certainly not just our friend, and very close partner, one of the leading partners in Latin America, “- said Vladimir Putin.
” We have come to discuss issues related to our bilateral relations, as well as issues related to the theme of stabilization prices our natural resources, “- said Nicolas Maduro.
Before coming to Moscow, Maduro visited Iran and Saudi Arabia. This country, which also depend on oil revenues. Meeting with the sheikhs is especially important. After all, they are at a meeting of the member countries of OPEC in December refused to reduce its own production for the sake of rising energy prices. What did not work at the general meeting, the Venezuelan leader tried, apparently, to solve personal communication. Did he is – is unknown. The other day, sheikhs declared that $ 25 a barrel they were not frightened, they say, the cost of extracting them is so low that they can not afford it. Position, which is more reminiscent of an ordinary bluff.
“The breakeven oil price for Saudi Arabia – is $ 90. What’s the difference that most of them well you will spend only 10? Without having to feed the entire population Saudi Arabia, a country can not exist, and to feed her any sources other than oil, does not exist “, – said the president of the industrial group” Interprom “Mikhail Yuriev.
similar opinion analysts and the IMF. In the same report, they showed at what price of oil different countries will be able to reduce their budgets. Saudi Arabia minimum threshold specified in the $ 106 per barrel. However, sheikhs, it seems quite different calculations. Saudi Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal in an interview with the American edition of “USA Today” literally said that the world would never see the price of a hundred dollars a barrel or even higher. Such statements only reinforce the nervousness in the market. It is obvious that the Saudis thus try to crush competitors, primarily manufacturers of expensive oil. But this is not important.
“This is a very difficult game, which involves too many, and it is literally being on all levels. The war started by the Americans. On its details said John Kerry and Saudi King Abdullah during a meeting a few months ago. It was part of the US strategy – to carry out an attack on the ruble, “- says journalist Pepe Escobar.
The economic war and its organizers has cost dearly. The damage is estimated not even dozens – hundreds of billions of dollars. Shale industry on the brink of ruin. But perhaps all this is considered a small price to pay for the opportunity to reach the goal, which in late December in an interview with National Public Radio US President Obama said.
“Remember, three or four months ago in Washington were all confident that Putin is a genius because of the Crimea, and he beat us all and even mocks, follows the path of strengthening of Russian power. And at the time I said, we do not want war with Russia, but we can increase the pressure together with our European partners. In this process, we believe that the only thing that keeps the Russian economy afloat – is the price of oil “- then said Barack Obama.
It just so happened that when politicians reject the suspicion of involvement in the in any event, this is not to say that they speak the truth. But the fact that Obama did not even bother to deny the assumption journalists on the participation of the Washington administration in the fall in oil prices – more than an eloquent sign. That’s just assumed there in Washington that things go so far?
“The big players have lost control of the situation, and now owned by speculators situation. In simple psychological techniques they are driving the price of oil at least,” – commented the expert Rustam Tankan.
On hand traders with New York Stock Exchange and played militants from the so-called “Islamic State”. On the territory under their control, they are dumped on the world market oil smuggling, the exact amount of which no one can count. We only know that they sell it absolutely at bargain prices, no more than $ 30 a barrel, and even prefer payment in cash and supply of arms. All this adds more confusion. And if six months ago, many analysts confidently stated that the $ 80 – a minimum limit, and the level of $ 40 does not even seriously discussed, it is now at the bottom of the oil barrel has no one sees. Thousands of various major and minor factors together just not amenable to mathematical analysis.
What happens to the price of oil, can be seen in a conventional tennis ball. Virtually impossible to predict the exact height to which it will jump up next time. Is that very roughly. If you move this path on a graph, you get a curve that is remarkably similar to the movement of oil prices. But here there is one rule: the more hits the ball, the faster and higher it bounces. And this “rule ball” always works with oil prices.
In this situation, as paradoxical as it may sound, the active organizers of the economic war can no longer work “against” and “to” the Russian economy. This opinion is now shared by the majority of experts.
“In my opinion, of course, if proclaimed colleagues from Saudi Arabia and from the UAE price of $ 25 per barrel is reached, then, in my opinion, the deeper it fall from the current level, the faster it will rebound, “- said the chairman of the Board of” Sberbank of Russia “Gref.
The experts do not rule out as soon as that happens, oil prices could again exceed the hundred-dollar mark. After endlessly deceive economy political games and speculation is impossible. And closing deposits, bankruptcy of companies – are the first signs that the situation is slowly yet begins to unfold in the opposite direction.
“What in the world is produced today – is extracted from the money that was spent yesterday. That is, yesterday we made investments, we built objects, and today is being produced. Today, however, the question arises whether to introduce new objects? And, accordingly, these objects are entered in much smaller quantities, and that is entered today, it is therefore will be reflected in the prices of tomorrow “- believes director of the Center for International Energy Markets RAS Vyacheslav Kulagin.
To change the situation on the market is the fact that in the world today is practically no no free oil reservoir. That was where to store bought up on the cheap oil tankers even rent. But these are still available capacity is estimated to be over in about ten days. Exactly the same thing happened in late 2008 – early 2009. Prices began to rise soon after all the tanks were filled to capacity. Just keep oil – too expensive. And speculators can not afford to pay someone else for too long political interests.
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