The Government of Ukraine approved the macroeconomic forecast for 2015-2017 years. It does not coincide with the expectations of the IMF and markedly deteriorated compared with spring expectations. However, under conditions of uncertainty of the situation in the country is now medium-term forecasts are more formal in nature.
The Government of Ukraine has approved the main indicators of the macroeconomic forecast for 2015-2017 years . Depending on the evolution of economic processes can go in two markedly different scenarios. The first involves the growth next year at only 0.3%. More optimistic outlook comes from a 2 percent GDP growth next year. Also various forecasts and expected inflation. In one scenario, the level in 2015 will be 8.7%, on the other – 9.8%. In 2016 and 2017 in the pessimistic scenario, growth will be, respectively, 2.5% and 4.5%, in the optimistic – 3% and 6.5% rate of inflation depending on the scenario in 2016 – from 6.1% to 7.3 % on an annualized basis, in 2017 – from 4.9% to 5,7%.
Note that the forecast approved by the government does not fully coincide with the expectations of the IMF, according to the latest report that, economic growth in 2015 could reach 1% at 9 per cent rate of inflation. This year, according to the same projections, the Ukrainian economy will shrink by 6.5%, while inflation accelerated to 19% per annum. 2016 IMF plans slowdown in inflation to 4.9%, while 4% of GDP. It is noteworthy that in his memorandum on the financial policy of the Government to the IMF in Ukraine September 2, the executive authority of the country agreed with the calculations of the fund – the memorandum also talked about the growth for the next year at a rate of 1%.
The scatter in the forward estimates shows that in the absence of a clear perspective of the situation in the east of Ukraine and not quite obvious expectations on the development of trade with the EU reliability of any predictions of the national economy can not be confirmed, and they are likely to wear formal character.
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