MOSCOW, September 5 -. RIA Novosti The agreement on the freezing of oil was slightly more real against the background of statements by Russia and Saudi Arabia on joint measures to stabilize prices, according to polled by RIA analysts News Russia and Saudi Arabia on Monday agreed on a joint or in cooperation with other oil-producing operations in order to maintain stability in the oil market and sustainable level of investment in the long term. The statement was signed by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Khalid Al-Falih. Novak explained that one of the possible tools – freezing production levels.
In a statement, the ministers noted the particular importance of constructive dialogue and close cooperation between the major producing countries in order to maintain stability in the oil market and sustainable level of investment in the long term. Ministers also agreed to continue consultations on the situation in the oil market and to establish a joint monitoring working group which will monitor the fundamental oil market indicators and make recommendations on measures and joint efforts to ensure stability and market predictability.
The effect of deja vu
All the interviewed experts noted the similarity of the current situation with the situation before the spring meeting of OPEC in Doha, when the issue was discussed freezing, but has not been resolved, in particular because of disagreement within the cartel. At the next meeting in Vienna on 2 June, OPEC countries have not reached an agreement. The next OPEC meeting will be held on November 30 in Vienna.
“Such statements we hear is not the first time it is always a positive impact on oil quotes as is happening now, but before the meeting and arrangements do not lead to any result. Accordingly, , beginning on the eve of the talks on oil prices rose, and then on the news of the failure to reach agreement, declined the question is whether this time to agree or not “-. said Raiffeisenbank analyst Andrei Polishchuk.He said that the chance of achieving such an agreement is still very small.
“Not all members of OPEC ready to cut production. There may be an agreement between the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia, but it will be conditional intention to possible stabilization of production at the highest levels that have been achieved after a month or three, when statistics show that production is not really reduced, and possibly in some countries growing, the market reaction may be the opposite, “-. said Polishchuk
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In turn, an analyst with “Sberbank CIB” Valery Nesterov, called the statement of the two countries a positive sign.
“The news of this kind is positive for oil-exporting manufacturer, has a moral value. As for the situation on the market, but recently there are indications that Saudi Arabia has somewhat changed its position in comparison with the spring and tends to support efforts to stabilize oil prices, in particular, the ability to re-discussing the issue of freezing oil. Saudi Arabia at this time, perhaps, would support such an agreement, in contrast to the torpedoing of such an agreement in Doha, “- he said,
According to him, the price of oil recovery is slower than would be wanted, most oil exporters, therefore.” arrangements similar reached on Monday, is better than none, but it is important that they are carried out “.
” Russia’s participation in the decision to freeze the oil would be politically very profitable at the same time, the organization is virtually no personal cost as well as our production growth reserves have been exhausted, according to last month’s rate of oil production growth began to slow down until the end of the year is unlikely to greatly exceed the plan, “-. he said,
according to the analyst” Veles Capital “Basil Tanurkova , the situation is similar to the spring with the exception of Iran’s position.
“By and large, this is a repetition of the situation in May-June, when the Doha talks collapsed. Now the situation is different from that at the time the stumbling block was Iran, which has not yet been restored production and does not agree to carry out freezing on the level, the more it was a freezing January level. Now Iran says it will bring the production to 4 million barrels per day, which would mean the restoration dosanktsionnogo level, so the prospects for any agreement more real than in the spring, “the next two to three months – the expert believes
<. p> at the same time, he notes that in general, to Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and probably Russia favorable situation to the oil held near $ 50 price per barrel to prevent drilling growth of shale oil in the US fields. to this end, it is desirable leave the question of freezing “in limbo”
“. Here the question is not to overdo it with the influence on the oil market in order to prevent the possibility of restoring production to countries where production costs are higher. Price from $ 50 to $ 60, probably would be optimal and allowed to keep the market from the recovery in US production. Price above $ 60 will be threatened by this, as well as restoring production at the offshore projects, it will not be very good in the longer term, could again lead to a collapse “-. Said Tanurcov
According to the existing forecasts for demand and reduce US production allow us to hope that the already freezing oil will go up in 2017. Thus, OPEC expects the deficit in the oil market in 2017.
“The feeling is, and all the predictions say that even in the absence of frosts production if OPEC just will not be very significantly increase production, the price to the end of the year will be higher than $ 50, and in 2017 in the range of 50-60 dollars fluctuate, preventing recovery of the American extraction, and laying the foundation for a more sustainable future in oil prices ” , – concluded the expert
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