«Oil of Russia», 08.04.16, Moscow, 08:59 The Russian economy is still not out of the recession, but is close to the point of stabilization, said the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina. However, she followed it regularly repeating Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on the need to adapt the country’s budget to lower oil prices, pointing out the risks of a high deficit for the Central Bank of the Russian economy and politics.
“The situation in the Russian economy It remains difficult, although the worst fears were not realized. the recession is not yet over, but the economy is already close to the point of stabilization. And the Bank of Russia expects this year to continue a slight decline, about 1.3-1.5% of GDP, at an oil price of $ 30 . If a barrel, of course, the price will be higher, such as it is now, then the recession may be less, “- the beginning of his speech Nabiullina, speaking at the congress of the ARB
the head of the Central Bank stressed that it is important. look not only at the rate of economic growth or decline, and on what structural changes in the economy
“Because it is now probably the most important -. as the economy adapts to new conditions, and we will see. that there are some positive signals, the expected changes in the Russian economy structure began: there is a shift from the so-called non-tradable sector to the tradable, especially export-oriented and partially import substitution (agriculture, food industry, chemical industry), “- she said
However, the pace of structural change are low, and this prevents the low investment activity, and lack of mobility in the labor market, she said.
situation on the market
Nabiullina has not left unnoticed and the situation on the financial markets. In her opinion, it is now much more stable than in 2014-2015, and in January this year.
“The volatility has decreased, financial asset prices have risen. In addition to global factors that contributed to the policy of floating exchange rate, adjustment the balance of payments under the low oil prices, “- she said
in the context of structural changes in the Russian economy, the monetary policy of the Central Bank aimed primarily at reducing inflation, which has risen sharply in the past year, iz. for large-scale fall in oil prices and the objective of the ensuing depreciation of the ruble, Nabiullina said.
“of course, we have taken measures to reduce inflation in view of their impact on economic growth and financial stability. There has been some progress. Inflation fell from almost 17% in March last year to 7.3% in March, in annual terms, ie more than 2 times. So I think right now is absolutely inappropriate conversations that allegedly have stagflation ” – stressed the head of the Bank of Russia
BUDGET -. AROUND tHE hEAD
However, Nabiullina immediately made a reservation that the achieved reduction of inflation does not guarantee its future reduction. “This is due to the fact that the decrease in inflation in recent years significant role of one-off favorable factors such as the decline in world food prices, a good harvest of vegetables and potatoes in Russia last year, as well as the strengthening of the ruble,” – she said
Nabiullina drew particular attention to the inflationary risks associated with the budget. If the balance of payments is practically adapted to the low oil prices, the fiscal policy, the budget system has not yet fully adapted to the oil and gas revenues fall, she lamented.
“The Reserve Fund allows the financing of the budget deficit increased, however, . we believe that is urgently needed to develop a program that would allow the system to balance the budget in the medium term without this budget will be a source of risks for the economy and for monetary policy “, – called on the head of the Central Bank
in. turn, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov agreed with the words Nabiullina that the possibility of rate cuts is limited to an unbalanced budget. “The fact of the lack of the necessary measures to reduce the budget deficit is largely a deterrent to reduce the key rate,” – agrees Minister
“What should I do in order not to increase the pressure on the money markets, to the Central Bank could lower the key. rate and commercial banks to cut rates The answer lies, in our view, fiscal policy, because the fiscal imbalance as Elvira Nabiullina said, is decisive in determining the future trends in the reduction of the key rate of the Bank of Russia “, – said Siluanov <. br />
iNFLATION tARGET iN NEED
“The Bank of Russia believes that the goal of 4% inflation in 2017 is not only absolutely real, but simply necessary “, -. Nabiullina said
In addition to the social impact of low inflation at 4% will reduce the investment risks for business, contribute to greater stability of the exchange rate, risk reduction and risk premiums
The Bank of Russia with a steady decline in inflation and inflation risks will increasingly be reduced. the key rate in the future without creating a risk for financial stability, she promised.
NEW SYSTEM WORK WITH BANKS
for the first time that in 2016 additional obstacle in the way of a rate cut could be a gradual shift from deficit to surplus liquidity in the banking sector, Nabiullina said in mid-March. “this year is a high probability that we are in a relationship with the banks move into the new system, the so-called structural liquidity deficit in the structural liquidity surplus, “- she reminded
However, the head of the Central Bank drew attention to the importance of a correct interpretation of the terms. ‘deficit’ and ‘surplus structural liquidity shortage does not mean that the lack of liquidity in the market, as well.” ” as well as a structural surplus does not mean that we have a liquidity surplus, its excess. Liquidity regulation by the Central Bank will be as long as necessary to short-term money market rates have been close to the key rate, “- she said
If the Central Bank is still credited for a few years, banks have refinanced, then. the future may be a situation when the budget reserve funds will be spent quickly enough, the controller will begin to borrow from banks, outlined a possible picture of it.
“In any case, I want to say that, no matter how changed our relationship with banks, with you, the Central Bank has all the tools to adjust interest rates in the economy “, – he said Nabiullina
The importance of the transition to the structural surplus is that while changes may occur in. the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, providing DCT transmission signals through the financial markets in the Russian economy.
“The structural surplus reduces some risks, such as those associated with lack of maintenance, lack of a form of security. But it can create new risks can provoke excessive interest of banks to risky lending to buy risky assets. And for this central bank will follow. But I hasten to say that in terms of the structural surplus is normal that the banks will keep the funds on deposit at the Central Bank or to invest in bonds of the Bank of Russia “, – warned Nabiullina. Learn more http://www.oilru.com/news/510471/
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