Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to a pre-freezing oil. This was reported on Tuesday “Interfax”, citing a diplomatic source in Doha, where the April 17 meeting should OPEC and producers outside the cartel (primarily Russia). The meeting will be dedicated to just the issue of fixing the level of oil production.
Saudi Arabia said it will make a decision to freeze regardless of the position of Iran on this issue.
At the same time in early April Deputy Crown Prince and defense Minister of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman stated that CA will not freeze the prey, if it does not make other major producers – and especially Iran
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In the middle of February 2016 Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela have agreed to fix the level of production of January
However, while OPEC and some other countries (eg, Oman and Bahrain) supported the initiative, no specific agreement has been concluded and it was not.
Later, Iran, who first expressed support for the idea of freezing, said he was willing to fix the production only after the leaves on dosanktsionny production level (US and EU sanctions, including restricting exports, and hence the production of Iranian oil, were canceled on January 16).
Now Iran wants to increase production to 4 million barrels. a day (now the country produces about 3.2 million barrels). And this despite the fact that now the oversupply is estimated at about 1.5 million barrels. in a day. The head of the Russian Ministry of Energy Alexander Novak said earlier that the Islamic Republic of Iran may be given “special conditions”. At the same time the same Novak said that the production freeze makes sense without the participation of Iran, as the initiative was supported by the country, providing 73% of world production.
On Tuesday, Alexander Novak said, he expects the meeting in Doha optimistic
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Previously, market experts pointed out that the freeze production at January levels for the majority of oil producers will not be a problem, as in January, most of the leaders and so were at the maximum (except Iran). Novak last week confirmed that we are talking about January, however, he admitted that the proposals could be considered for fixing at the level of February or March. “If these proposals go” – he said the Russian minister
Russia, and in January and February was producing about 10.8 million barrels.. in a day. First Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexey Teksler last week said that the Ministry of Energy monitors the daily production level in view of the agreement to freeze
According to OPEC, oil production in February in the countries -. Members of the organization was changed in different directions. The leader of the cartel, Saudi Arabia reduced production compared to January by 9.8 thousand. Barrels. a day to 10.2 million barrels. Next is Iraq, where production has fallen already at 317 th. Barrels. and amounted to 4.458 million barrels. per day. Closes the three leaders of Iran with 3.385 million barrels. per day (.. 15 thousand barrels)
Production of Kuwait in February remained unchanged (3 million barrels per day.), significantly reduced the production of the United Arab Emirates -.. to 353.9 thousand barrels per day, up to 2.78 million barrels. Decreased production in Venezuela, to 2.529 million barrels. (-28.6 Thousand. Barrels.). Here, for example, Nigeria has increased production by 123.7 thousand. Barrels. a day to 1.881 million barrels. Next in terms of reduced production at Angola 3 th. Barrels., To 1.767 million barrels. Algeria, with its 1.125 million barrels. increased production compared to January 2 th. barrels. One of the initiators of the freeze, Qatar, increased its production by 54.2 thous. Bbl., To 692 th. Barrels. Ecuador in February extracted 559 th. Barrels. per day (24.7 thousand. barrels.) The data on Libya and Indonesia are not.
Most experts, including senior analyst for oil and gas companies “Aton” Alexander Kornilov, considered at current prices and production volumes in the US to develop oil shale becomes unprofitable, and will be gradually phased out. Not much to improve the situation for the “shale” company, even a small rise in prices, such as $ 50 per barrel. This means that the market there is first the supply and demand balance, and then the excess of demand, the expert notes
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So far, at current levels of volatility, the market is trying to find a new trend, based on the statements and forecasts major market makers of the oil market in the face of oil minister of Saudi Arabia, Ali al-Naimi, as well as the heads of BP, Shell, «Rosneft» and Exxon.
So, in anticipation of the results of the meeting in Doha on Tuesday, oil rose to $ 44.48 per barrel. (Brent, data at 20.30 MSK on Tuesday). Last time quotes were at a similar level at the end of November last year.
Brent growth, which is linked to the price of Russian oil of Urals cost, and led to some strengthening of the ruble. US dollar exchange rate of the Central Bank on April 13 -.. 66.34 rubles, while the 12th was 67.12 rubles
However, the Doha negotiations could be unsuccessful. If Russia and CA agreed to freeze production without taking into account Iran, it means that they have agreed to give Iran some of their market share, said partner Rusenergy Michael Krutikhin.
Previously, Iran has already announced its intention to sell its oil in Africa, at a price lower than that of oil the Saudis. In addition, Iran provides discounts to China, Taiwan and South Korea
«In Europe, Iran generally sells its” heavy “oil at $ 17 per barrel”, -. Expert notes
The fact that the meeting in Qatar unlikely to be crowned with the conclusion of an agreement on freezing , indirectly evidenced by the fact that a number of key manufacturers intend to increase production. Thus, the head of Kuwait Oil Co. Jamal Jaafar just said on Tuesday that Kuwait plans to increase production from the current 3 million barrels. per day to 3.165 million barrels. However, according to him, it is planned to make a little later in 2016 or in 2017.
The general director of the Iraqi state oil company Falah Alamri said Tuesday that Iraq supports the initiative to freeze, as this is the only opportunity to support prices. However, Iraq is continuing to ramp up production in March, it reached 4.55 million barrels. per day.
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