Source: photo archives “of PRAVDA.Ru”
“ The ruble came now in a fair state of equilibrium, given the situation on the world market and taking into account trends in neftetsenah. Oil prices are still quite unstable, so in the near future trend is not obvious, although part of the market analysts said that the decline in the next few weeks may be extended. This means that on the ruble, ceteris paribus will be pressure from neftetsen towards its slight weakening. It should be noted that all the same fluctuation of oil on the ruble responds, though not as pronounced as some time ago, but nevertheless with a decrease in oil prices euro and dollar grow “, – said Nikita Maslennikov.
The economist also noted that still demand for rubles on the market today is higher than the currency. “The Central Bank has enough supply channels currency liquidity of market participants due to its refinancing mechanisms in the form of repo transactions on different durations from one week to one year. And another factor – February-March peak payment of corporate foreign debt is still relatively well will take place. So now this excessive demand is not there. But soon begins the tax period, which is always associated with an increase in demand for the ruble, is of course also leads to stabilization of . Therefore, the dependence of the ruble against low oil prices, partially offset by other factors. Neutral on the exchange rate affects the geopolitical factor, because in the course of the Minsk Agreement nevertheless expressed their failure is not observed “.
Nikita Maslennikov also stressed that, of course, remains dependent and from the situation in the currency markets, which will emerge in connection with the possible increase in the base rate of the Federal Reserve, which is always pushing the dollar up . A pair of ruble-euro economist noted, everything will depend on how the world currency markets will react to the quantitative easing program, launched by the European Central Bank. while this factor acts in the direction of the weakening of the euro, but it also occurs in the euro-dollar.
“My prediction is that, in principle, a smooth trend appreciation of the ruble against the euro will continue, but the dollar in the second half we look somewhat weaker, rather than the current level, “- said the economist.
Reporter” PRAVDA.Ru ‘asked what predictions can give a ruble in 2015?
“ I am inclined to believe that the ruble will be somewhat weaker than the official forecast MED, which involves 61 5. I think that at such prices for oil and at such a factor in increasing the base rate of the Federal Reserve should expect weakening, the only question is when it will happen . But it is important to keep in mind that by the beginning of the 2nd half of the euro and the dollar can reach parity. Therefore, depending on it will be built and the course. If they come out one by one, then there can be considered and some average annual value of the euro to the ruble, “- concluded Nikita Maslennikov.
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