During the current year, geopolitical tensions around Russia will continue, and will continue to apply sanctions. This was stated by Dmitry Medvedev at an economic conference in suburban “Gorki».
The meeting was held behind closed doors. Its outcome was the endorsement by the Government of the adjusted forecast of socio-economic development of Russia in 2015. Based on this forecast, the Cabinet will prepare a revised version of the budget. According to Medvedev, he should be ready by the end of February and in early March, submitted to the State Duma.
– We need to prepare a conservative forecast, so that we do not then all “dispersed” to revised budget was the most balanced and less dependent on price fluctuations of external shocks – Medvedev addressed the participants of the meeting.
As told reporters then Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev, laid in the forecast oil price of $ 50 per barrel, gas – $ 222 for 1 thousand cubic meters. According to Ulyukayev, for oil is more pessimistic than most expert estimates.
– below $ 10 per barrel, about – said Ulyukayev.
He also said that the government forecast a high outflow capital – 115 billion. dollars – due to the inability to Russian borrowers to refinance their debts in a foreign market.
– This leads to the fact that there will be significant inflation, changes in exchange ratios. December to December inflation could reach 12.2 percent – said Ulyukayev.
According to him, the average annual inflation will be 15.8 percent.
According to Ulyukayev, the budget deficit in 2015 (amounting to 3.8 percent of GDP) can be fully financed from the Reserve Fund. All of it will be allocated 500 billion. Rubles. Dmitry Medvedev has signed a decree. On what will be spent money out of the capsule, until I finally decided. However, as early as December, said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov allocated amount is likely to be insufficient.
Ulyukayev also said that Russia could reach a balanced budget by 2017 at an oil price of $ 70 per barrel. In this scenario, the authorities even be able to save a part of the Reserve Fund.
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