In March, authorities announced a competition for the design of high-speed highway Moscow – Kazan. The cost of design work – 20.5 billion rubles., 5 billion this year will go from FNB. At issue is the return line. But Railways intends to hold on to the fast branch of China, linking Europe and Asia, the new “Silk Road».
Railways announce a competition for the design of high-speed highway Moscow – Kazan until March 16, 2015, said on Friday first Vice-President Alexander Misharin, adding that the initiative endorsed by the Prime.
In designing this year alone will be allocated 6 billion rubles. “There will be one billion at the expense of Russian Railways” – said in an interview with Tass Misharin. The remaining 5 billion will be allocated from the National Welfare Fund.
The end of R & D activities is scheduled for September 2016. This will take another 14.5 billion rubles. Total design cost 20.5 billion rubles.
The project Railways initially estimated at 1.5 trillion rubles., And it was assumed that a high-speed branch make it to Yekaterinburg. But later the estimate was reduced to 1.068 trillion rubles. and limit the final destination in Kazan (stretching branches – 770 km, travel time – 3.5 hours).
Authorities in 2012 to discuss the possibility of building high-speed rail. The principal project approval was given by the president. But the stumbling block was the feasibility study of such a large project. In November 2013 the Kremlin decided to build a highway through the NWF irrationally.
Vladimir Putin instructed to carefully consider the sources of funding for high-speed rail. Many interpreted this as a rejection of the “project of the century.” But as later explained First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, clarification of sources does not mean the closure of the project. “When will be exactly clear how much such a project is worth the time within which the money can come back – because all the resources of the fund shall be returnable – only then we will come back to the need to finance this project,” – Shuvalov said.
In the absence of funds in the budget for the construction of mega-project and referred to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. “We realize, when a lot of money,” – Medvedev spoke about the project.
As a “risky” evaluate projects SCM Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev. “He comes from certain hypotheses on passenger traffic, which are not obvious to me,” – said Ulyukayev on “business lunch” Savings Bank during the Investment Forum in Sochi.
In January of this year, the Economic Development Ministry has given strategic positive conclusion on the project. But the money for the design of Railways has not received. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev insisted that the Railways should participate in the financing of at least part of the preparation of the project “about half”: 3 billion rubles. of Railways and the state, from the National Welfare Fund.
RZD President Vladimir Yakunin has threatened to collapse the project in general, if the state does not allocate the promised funds for the design in the first quarter. He explained this by saying that otherwise will be threatened timing of the project. As a result, the contribution to the project Railways has decreased this year to 1 billion, and the contribution of the state rose to 5 billion rubles.
«Government approved total funding R & D activities for 2015 in the amount of 6 billion rubles. The source of formation of this amount are being cleared “- told” Gazeta.ru “the ministry on Friday.
The cost of design and survey work in the amount of 2% of the total budget (20.5 billion from the $ 1 trillion rubles.), in principle, acceptable, says Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO «INFOLine-Analytics”. The more that the authorities and experts are doubts about the feasibility of this project.
It is desirable that the competition for the contract for the project involved not only Russian but also Western companies. “We’ll have to spend a considerable amount on the design, but any other method of calculating the viability of the project – it’s just a finger-pointing at the sky,” – says Burmistrov.
In addition to the high costs for the project remains the weak point of the opportunity to recoup investments trillion. In the absence of the project to talk about his return on prematurely, said Burmistrov. Ministry of Economic Development argue that high-speed rail should be recoverable.
«According to the current model of financial return on the project is planned. Calculations prepared JSC “Russian Railways” in conjunction with external consultants and the Center for Strategic Research “, – says the ministry.
The project’s profitability could reach at most 5%, as in the same Europe.
Construction branch Moscow – Kazan – a typical “white elephant”, slang for business – it is something big, beautiful and wanton, warned in an interview with “Gazeta.ru” a senior economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Tatiana Orlova.
«For example, the construction of the summit of the bridge on the Russian island, where there is nothing. This is the “white elephant”. And put it in a billion dollars. Other infrastructure projects, which are now at the hearing, also cause serious doubts. Well, open the high-speed rail Moscow – Kazan. What will change in the economy of the region? “- Is perplexed Orlov. Expert categorically against unsealing of the Reserve Fund on infrastructure projects at the slightest doubt in the return of investment.
Railways expects that branch Moscow – Kazan will be launched to the World Cup in June and July 2018. “Highway in this case will be an important element of the transport support of the World Cup, will connect the three cities of the games – Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod and Kazan” – said one lobbyist SCM Tatarstan President Rustam Minnikhanov.
According to the current version of the financial model of the project, the construction of high-speed rail is expected in 2016, explained “Gazeta.ru” in the Ministry of Economic Development. But this means that the fast branch for such period to build the 2018 World Cup is unreal.
«Planned construction period – five years. Provided sufficient funding. Well, if in 2018 at least begin to lay the rails “, – says Mikhail Burmistrov. Experts remind that all preliminary calculations for the project were carried out before the Russian economy entered into another crisis, before the collapse of the ruble and a sharp rise in the key rate of the Central Bank.
The crisis in spite of Railways is planning to enter the highway Moscow – Kazan transnational project “Silk Road” that will connect China with the markets of Europe and the Middle East. According Misharina, China preserves the intention to invest in the project 400 billion rubles. The Chinese leadership has put forward the concept of “Silk Road” in 2013. The project will strengthen the role of the Asia-Pacific region as a new world economic center, lobbyists believe this project. However, so far it is not clear where pave the route: through Altai or through Kazakhstan.
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