Photo: Yekaterina Kuzmina / RBC
Save 600 billion
The further cuts in the federal budget in 2015 to 600 billion rubles. announced Finance Minister Anton Siluanov Tuesday at a meeting of “financial twenty” in Istanbul. New cuts, according to him, will be summed up with the Ministry of Finance has already made at the beginning of this year, 10 per cent cuts in respect of limits for budget users.
The January Siluanov cost reduction estimated at 900 billion rubles. In general, agencies did not receive funds for investment costs. The state defense order and social spending the government has not touched.
Finally, to determine the cost reductions in the White House are going to the end of February – this requirement is contained in the government’s anti-crisis plan, approved by the Prime Minister on 27 January. Given these parameters Siluanov budget expenditures decreased by 1.5 trillion rubles., It is the reduction of budget expenditures by 10% (the current budget are planned at 15.5 trillion rubles.).
But even more drastic spending cuts will not save the budget deficit from rising, which still makes up 0.6% of GDP. Siluanov appreciated the direct loss of the treasury 2.6 trillion rubles. Incomes decline after the price of oil and the proceeds from the MET. The most significant decrease “we expect in February, as the MET, which is considered the price of oil in the previous reporting period will be considered already at discounted prices in January,” the minister announced.
Economic Development in late January has already sent a worsening of the economic forecast in the White House, calculated from the average oil price of $ 50 per barrel. According to the Ministry, so the price of oil directly influenced the decline in GDP by 3%, the growth of the budget deficit to 4.6% and a decline in investment in fixed assets by 13.7%. The relevance of these figures yesterday confirmed two sources of RBC in the government. Government official said yesterday RBC that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy differences on macro forecasts are minimal.
Not only investment
On Wednesday and macroeconomic forecast the basic parameters of budget cuts will be considered at a meeting with Dmitry Medvedev. But on Tuesday Siluanov announced his proposal is not limited only to the reduction investraskhodov. “We believe that under current conditions could miss the indexation of salaries as civil servants and other categories of citizens, and social benefits to ease the budget of the current and subsequent years, do not stimulate consumption, the additional demand, including for imported goods” – he said.
The Minister said that he had not discussed these proposals in the government. However, in January the government was prepared version of the anti-crisis plan called “Version 2.0″, which listed the Minister of reducing social expenditures are estimated at 126.3 billion rubles. budgetary savings. A cancellation of indexation from 1 October 2015 5.5% pay civil servants in this plan is estimated at 18 billion rubles. According to sources RBC.
The Finance Ministry insists on saving and current anti-crisis spending. This week, he suggested the government to show restraint and not to spend the reserve fund for priority anti-crisis measures in the first quarter, more than 20 billion rubles. The anti-crisis commission First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov was going to consider these costs as early as Tuesday, but the meeting was postponed due to lack of finance minister.
A government source confirmed yesterday RBC that even while indexing of pension from February 1 on actual inflation produced exclusively from the budget of the FIU. Earlier, Ministry of Labour insisted on additional transfers from the federal budget of 188 billion rubles., But this amount in the White House promised to compensate for no earlier than the summer, he said.
In the structure of the approved budget costs about one-third – is spending on national security and defense and the same – social spending, a 10 percent reduction limits for the remaining part, says chief economist “VTB Capital” Vladimir Kolychev. Not the fact that after the reduction of room for maneuver will, he fears.
«Who is more important than how much to cut costs this year, and how the government will be able to come to a balanced budget in the medium term with the understanding that oil prices will remain at $ 60-70 per barrel, not $ 100 as before. For this it is necessary to reform the pension system and the whole system of social assistance or in part in military spending, “- says Kolychev.
The authorities will have to make greater use of the Reserve Fund, predicts chief economist at the Center for Development HSE Valery Mironov. The proposal to reduce costs by eliminating the indexation of wages and social benefits – a double edged sword, he said: state employees have a high propensity to consume, that would support the effective demand. “Each percentage point decline in real incomes of the population – about 0.5 percentage points of GDP. If they are not indexed, the economic recession will be deeper, “- he warns.
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